Good morning traders. The DAX gaps highers this morning with a strong intention to break Friday’s high, which keeps the overall bias bullish for now. The daily EMAs are all stacked correctly with the 5>8, the 8>50 and the 50>200, which you can see on the daily DAX chart below. This means the bullish target this week is to break above the 2019 high, currently around 13,368.
This morning’s webinar was not recorded, but I will be back tomorrow morning with another. Come and join that if you’re available. In order to use the chat facility, you will need to follow the Twitch channel.
DAX Analysis – What To Watch
ECB President’s first parliament hearing
ECB President Lagarde appears at her first Parliament hearing today after her term began in November. We do not expect any signs of monetary policy implications, but focus will be on the monetary policy strategy review.
Chinese PMI numbers
Chinese November PMIs released Saturday were much better than expected with the PMI manufacturing up from 49.3 to 50.2, the highest level since early 2019 although the level remains below the levels in 2017 and 2018. PMI non-manufacturing index was up to 54.4 from 52.8. Also the private Caixin PMI manufacturing index came out better than expected, basically unchanged. Overall, the PMIs support the view that China has begun a moderate acceleration supported by stimulus and declining trade war fears. It is good news, as China drives one-third of global GDP growth and Chinese PMIs lead global PMI by a couple of months.
Germany’s government dealt a blow
Germany’s Social Democrats elected two left-wingers over the weekend and notable ‘Groko’ critics as their leaders. There is a high risk of a government crisis and new elections in 2020, so watch for the SPD party convention on 6-8 December. There could be some market nervousness this week.
DAX Analysis – 02-12-2019 Charts
Daily DAX Chart
DAX Market Profile
I liked how the exposed point of control from two Fridays ago held price action on Black Friday. The market seemed ready to tank and break to lower levels after creating an initial balance below the range of the previous four days, but the POC held up and the market recovered nicely. The value area on Friday formed above the initial balance and the market closed inside its value area. Notice as well how Friday’s price action tagged three exposed points of control.
One obvious target to note is Friday’s point of control, this is still exposed.
DAX Analysis – 02-12-2019 Key Levels
| Method | Price |
| VWAP | 13224 |
| Point of Control | 13215 |
| Value Area High | 13265 |
| Value Area Low | 13208 |
| Pivot | 13220 |
| R2 | 13349 |
| S2 | 13091 |
DAX Signals and Forex Signals
DAX Signals
Here is a table of results from last week’s trading signals on the DAX. More DAX trading signal history available from that link.
| # | Time | Date | Mkt | Type | Entry | SL | TP | Reward | Close | Pips | Return | Balance | Return | Return |
| 1077 | 11:10 | 29.11.19 | DAX | BUY | 13228.65 | 13216.95 | 13276.95 | 4.13% | TP | 48.3 | 4.01% | 40649.67 | 18.66% | 2.57% |
| 1076 | 16:47 | 27.11.19 | DAX | BUY | 13285.71 | 13273.95 | 13333.95 | 4.10% | 13290.81 | 5.1 | 0.42% | 39082.46 | 14.09% | -1.38% |
| 1075 | 9:09 | 27.11.19 | DAX | SELL | 13250.6 | 13262.7 | 13202.7 | 3.96% | sl | 12.1 | -1.00% | 38919.00 | 13.61% | -1.79% |
| 1074 | 13:37 | 26.11.19 | DAX | BUY | 13230.65 | 13217.65 | 13282.65 | 4.00% | 13233.25 | 2.6 | 0.20% | 39312.13 | 14.76% | -0.80% |
| 1073 | 13:01 | 26.11.19 | DAX | BUY | 13228.95 | 13216.95 | 13276.95 | 4.00% | SL | -12 | -1.00% | 39233.66 | 14.53% | -1.00% |
Forex Signals
These are the results from last week’s forex trades, which were sent to the forex channel So there is not too much to write about. Therefore, here are the numbers:
| # | Time | Date | Market | Type | Entry | Stop Loss | Target | Close Price | PIPS | % | Balance | 2019 | Q4 | Last Week | 2019 Pips |
| 1793 | 11:04 | 28.11.19 | GBPJPY | LONG | 141.577 | 140.9 | 142.9 | 141.61 | 3 | 0.02% | 99,213 | 133.85% | 4.87% | -1.51% | 16040 |
| 1792 | 10:17 | 28.11.19 | AUDJPY | LONG | 74.031 | 73.37 | 75.3 | 74.036 | 5 | 0.01% | 99,189 | 133.80% | 4.85% | -1.53% | 16037 |
| 1791 | 15:15 | 27.11.19 | GBPCAD | SHORT | 1.70898 | 1.7155 | 1.694 | SL | -66 | -0.50% | 99,182 | 133.78% | 4.84% | -1.54% | 16032 |
| 1790 | 11:07 | 27.11.19 | EURCAD | SHORT | 1.46022 | 1.4665 | 1.447 | 1.4623 | -20 | -0.33% | 99,680 | 134.95% | 5.37% | -1.04% | 16098 |
| 1789 | 11:06 | 27.11.19 | EURGBP | SHORT | 0.8541 | 0.861 | 0.84 | 0.8511 | 30 | 0.14% | 100,011 | 135.73% | 5.72% | -0.71% | 16118 |
| 1788 | 10:28 | 27.11.19 | USDCHF | SHORT | 0.99809 | 1.0045 | 0.985 | 0.9999 | -18 | -0.28% | 99,867 | 135.39% | 5.56% | -0.86% | 16088 |
| 1787 | 8:26 | 27.11.19 | GBPAUD | SHORT | 1.89471 | 1.9015 | 1.88 | SL | -68 | -0.50% | 100,149 | 136.06% | 5.86% | -0.58% | 16106 |
| 1786 | 8:20 | 27.11.19 | USDCAD | SHORT | 1.32755 | 1.334 | 1.314 | 1.3272 | 3 | 0.05% | 100,653 | 137.25% | 6.39% | -0.08% | 16174 |
| 1785 | 12:53 | 26.11.19 | USDJPY | SHORT | 108.988 | 109.6 | 107.6 | SL | -61 | -1.00% | 100,598 | 137.12% | 6.34% | -0.13% | 16171 |
| 1784 | 11:13 | 26.11.19 | GBPNZD | SHORT | 2.0026 | 2.0096 | open | 1.9996 | 30 | 0.07% | 101,614 | 139.51% | 7.41% | 0.88% | 16232 |
| 1783 | 10:42 | 26.11.19 | AUDNZD | SHORT | 1.05613 | 1.0622 | open | 1.0539 | 22 | 0.22% | 101,542 | 139.34% | 7.33% | 0.80% | 16202 |
| 1782 | 6:30 | 26.11.19 | GBPCHF | SHORT | 1.28539 | 1.2923 | 1.272 | 1.28239 | 30 | 0.07% | 101,318 | 138.81% | 7.10% | 0.58% | 16180 |
| 1781 | 16:32 | 25.11.19 | GBPCAD | SHORT | 1.71797 | 1.7245 | 1.704 | TP | 139 | 0.90% | 101,245 | 138.64% | 7.02% | 0.51% | 16150 |
| 1780 | 8:56 | 25.11.19 | AUDCAD | SHORT | 0.90249 | 0.9085 | 0.89 | 0.8977 | 47 | 0.65% | 100,343 | 136.52% | 6.07% | -0.38% | 16011 |
| 1779 | 8:55 | 25.11.19 | EURCAD | SHORT | 1.46545 | 1.472 | 1.453 | 1.4623 | 31 | 0.44% | 99,700 | 135.00% | 5.39% | -1.02% | 15964 |
| 1778 | 4:53 | 25.11.19 | EURCHF | SHORT | 1.09867 | 1.105 | 1.085 | 1.1017 | -30 | -0.48% | 99,265 | 133.98% | 4.93% | -1.45% | 15933 |
| 1777 | 4:50 | 25.11.19 | USDCHF | SHORT | 0.997 | 1.003 | 0.985 | 0.9999 | -29 | -0.48% | 99,743 | 135.10% | 5.43% | -0.98% | 15963 |
| 1776 | 4:20 | 25.11.19 | NZDJPY | SHORT | 69.86 | 70.45 | 68.65 | SL | -59 | -0.50% | 100,227 | 136.24% | 5.94% | -0.50% | 15992 |
Last week
