The Dax remains Bearish below 12440. The feared breakup of the CDU / CSU Union has been averted thanks to the compromise in the asylum dispute. It is independence day today so we expect slow conditions for trading. England win a penalty shootout for the first time in a long long time.

NO WEBINAR TODAY – QUIET DAY EXPECTED

The leaders of the CDU and CSU, Chancellor Angela Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, have resolved their bitter asylum dispute and averted a break-up of the Union for the time being. The sister parties now want to set up transit centres for refugees already registered in other EU countries at the German-Austrian border.

We are pretty light on news today, the Markit Services PMI numbers are due out at 9am this morning. But the slower day means there is not a lot of news. Today will be a short article.

 

04-07-2018 Dax Analysis

04-07-2018 Dax POC

Directly above us we have the POC from yesterday at 12339, so it’s likely that this level will get a visit today. If it doesn’t and we break the yesterday low instead, then the Monday POC at 12232 would be the most obvious target.

04-07-2018 Dax Returns to 289

The DAX 30 is currently trading between a major swing low of 12102 and a major swing high of 12440 and I marked out an interesting level at 12289. This 289 level is interesting for how it has acted as support and resistance. Now look at the downsloping trend-line and see how price is currently testing that line once more (from above this time). I find it interesting that this is happening around the 289 line.

04-07-2018 Dax Struggles to Find Bullish Momentum

We are bearish below 12440. Yesterday we threatened to test this ‘trend-defining level’ after breaking above the two-hour IB. Trading that strategy would have offered a 70 point move, but the reward to risk would have been very low. Price turned around and closed very close to the morning open. So the Dax struggles to find any bullish momentum.