Good morning traders
Here is the video for today
We had a release yesterday from Mario Draghi, saying that interest rates are going to stay low for a prolonged period of time beyond the expiration of the asset purchase program. The program will continue, so they will continue buying until the end of September and possibly further.
The rhetoric did change a little bit as I believe he removed a word or two about the ambitions of the asset purchase program, but this was to be expected. So overall it was a dovish outlook from the ECB. Good for bulls.
There are some trade-war concerns to balance to bullish flavour, but I believe we can let price action show us the way for now.
The press conference is in the telegram channel that I published yesterday. See below.
09-03-2018 Dax Outlook
I am currently looking for reasons to get long, but I don’t want to be buying into sellers.
So we have a 60-minute chat here showing how we have broken past the previous resistance of 280. There was previous pressure building with price pushing up against the 280. Traders were looking at that as a double or triple top and selling it. But after repeadedly knocking on the door it popped through 280.
So this could well be an ‘expansion’ type trade and the decision now it’s just whether or not this is an ‘expand and continue’ trade or an ‘expand and reverse’ trade. See the video for more details.
If it is and expand and reverse trade then we are likely heading higher. This would be what I am looking for.
On the TPO we have a very ugly looking profile. There is a low-volume node in the middle of the two separate distributions. The first part of today’s session was oscillating around the point of control from yesterday. But we have broken below the IB (initial balance).
You could draw a composite volume profile, of the price action from the last couple of days. If you do so it will show you a low-volume node directly below current price which may offer an opportunity. But I’m looking for a price to find some support in the balance area below.
Regarding the BB RSI strategy there were three or four trades over the last few days of which three stoploss and one hit breakeven. This is one of the issues with using a mean reversion strategy during a trend. However it is still up over 30% in less than a month. Not bad, we will continue to test it.
