This week will probably be the last week in which I am active in the Dax, because I don’t enjoy the liquidity drain over the holiday period. Judging by the economic calendar, it is going to be a potentially volatile week as well with multiple releases from the major central banks. The Fed, ECB and BoE are all due to contribute some kind of firework to the display, so keep an eye on the release calendar.

11-12-2017 Dax Outlook

We are still in a slightly tricky spot, because there are no clear signs of any trend and volatility is increasing. So the conditions are not ideal for understanding our swings. The market is currently still trading sideways in an ever-expanding range.

My personal preference is a long and a spot that I am watching that looks interesting is the zone between 13085-13130. The zone between then daily S1 and the daily Pivot is an interesting potential long spot, but there are unclosed gaps below, so the argument for both sides remains even.

Alternatively, sit out of this market for now and wait for a new trend.

11-12-2017 Dax Charts

Minor Swings

  • The circle shaded area is an interesting confluence of fork levels
  • We need to break the 13213 level to signal a new trend
  • The gap of the median line through point (9, C and E) supports a bullish case

Major Swings

  • We currently trade around the major fork Median Line
  • Price is trading at the top of the shaded range, roughly half way between the two major target zones
  • As volatility increases, the likelihood of being chopped up increases

11-12-2017 Dax Key Levels

POC * 13164
Value Area High * 13198
Value Area Low * 13155
14 Day ATR 160.12
200 EMA 12465
Daily R2 13287
Daily R1 13225
Daily Pivot 13181
Daily S1 13119
Daily S2 13075
*These are FXCM numbers, not futures numbers. Please be aware that FXCM can often be 5-10 points higher than futures prices