Good morning traders. We spent the majority of yesterday consolidating inside the Low Volume Node (LVN) left behind on Thursday and trading just above the Value Area High from Friday. The LVN is circled on the chart above. At the beginning of the session I was considering whether price would be attracted to the exposed point of control (blue line) from Thursday. Towards the afternoon session is was looking less likely.

Yesterday’s Dax Trade

See more about my trades here

Around 5:30 UK time I took a (CFD) short at 12341, targetting 12202 with a SL at 12375 offering a 4.1 reward to risk.

2018-02-12_1735

It traded pretty close to the stop loss but I decided to leave it overnight. This morning the trade run down the home stretch and congratulations to everyone who managed to make some money. Some brokers allowed that TP and some missed it. But it hit on futures. The idea behind the trade was that we were slowly grinding lower all day, approaching the previous highs, and I saw an outside bar form at the top. Considering the overall market is bearish and my algo had just opened the exact same trade, I decided to let it run.
13-02-2018 Dax Technical Analysis 1
The harsh part of this trade (FXCM – I am directing this at you) is that the price reached 12201.17 and with the spread at 0.85, I missed my target by 0.02 points. I don’t think I have ever seen a trade get that close and then reverse. But that is kind of what happened this morning. And I held it. Stubbornness and ignorance often get the better of my judgement.

I also still have Gold running (long – from 1315)

13-02-2018 DAX Ideas

 

12200 should be pretty good support, but if we break below that 12200 then we open up a test of the 12090-12120 zone, where price spent some time on Thursday.

If we continue higher today, after that mini-reversal, then the gap close should be a popular target followed by the naked VPOC (blue line on the top chart).

13-02-2018 DAX Charts

13-02-2018 Dax Technical Analysis 2

13-02-2018 Dax Technical Analysis 3

13-02-2018 DAX Levels

KEY LEVELS
POC * 12307
Value Area High * 12342
Value Area Low * 12281
14 Day ATR 284.23
200 EMA 12666
50 EMA 12986
Daily R2 12476
Daily R1 12411
Daily Pivot 12314
Daily S1 12250
Daily S2 12152
*These are FXCM numbers, not futures numbers. Please be aware that FXCM can often be 5-10 points higher than futures prices