14-01-2019 DAX 30 Technical Analysis

14-01-2019 DAX 30

Morning traders. Expect more uncertainty this week. There is clear uncertainty over the vote on Tuesday on the Brexit agreement in the British Parliament and this will weigh on the markets. The outcome is still not visible but I think the result will be a ‘no’. How we proceed and go on from that is unclear. So we brace ourselves. 

Assuming that the risk of a global recession remains low, then this recent bear market could be over faster than some would imagine providing there is some clear guidance on how to move forward through these issues.  It has recently seemed as though we have a bottoming on the stock exchanges. The US Federal Reserve seem more flexible with their monetary policy than expected, so now it’s only the politics to play along.

The positive scenario that is likely to happen in 2019 is above all linked to the meanwhile changed expectations regarding interest rates in the US. The chief central banker Jerome Powell has just stated that the economy will continue to grow, that his house will keep a close eye on the economy when it comes to making interest rate decisions, and that monetary policy is “not fixed”. Notable statements. Who would have given the US Federal Reserve so much flexibility? So far, the fear was enormous that the central bankers make a huge mistake and in a weakening economy in the monetary tightening too tight.

That in terms of interest rate increases but now in fact nothing is set in stone, also show the so-called Fed Funds Futures, ie derivatives on US key interest rates. These sink and sink. Specifically: The market now assumes that this year to even get any US rate hike more! This is an extreme U-turn. The stock markets around the world reacted positively to this. The prices increased across the board. Overall, everything looks better now.

Brexit – or rather the vote in the British Parliament on 15 January – is of course still an obstacle that could slow down the soft recovery again. Likewise, the negotiations between the US and China for free trade. However, US President Donald Trump should also realize that he will have to demonstrate something concrete in order to have a realistic chance of re-election next year. And the Democrats in the US Parliament will not only be able to face confrontation in the year before the election, but will also have to work solution-oriented in order to be perceived as an alternative to the highest political office. 

14-01-2019 DAX 30 Chart

Economic Calendar This Week

14-01-2019 Key Levels

  DAX FTSE DOW ESTOXX
Point of Control :  10888 6918 23975 3068
Value Area High :  10909 6948 23992 3080
Value Area Low :  10853 6902 23887 3058
VWAP :  10895 6935 23925 3073
R2 :  11034 7045 24157 3104
S2 :  10763 6839 23709 3041
Pivot :  10899 6942 23933 3072
Camarilla Breakout (Bull) 10972 6975 24103 3088
Camarilla Breakout (Bear) 10823 6862 23856 3054

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