16-11-2018 Dax Technical Analysis

16-11-2018 Dax

Good morning traders.

The dispute over the design of Brexit has plunged the government of Prime Minister Theresa May into a deep crisis. According to traders, scenarios such as a second referendum, new elections or a tough Brexit have become more likely. Above all, investors fear negative effects on the European economy. The ongoing dispute over the Italian budget also causes them a headache.

So the headlines, once again, provide a distraction from the markets as trader look to see how this will affect their positions. I will admit that I get a bit caught up with the media frenzy sometimes. When it’s like this, I tend to prefer to just watch the price action and take a back step. 

For example, take a look at the hourly chart below. Despite all the recent price action, we still lack any meaningful signs of a trend. We are trapped in a range and we are forming this range on declining volume. So perhaps we can mark the range bounds out on our charts and play it. What’s the oldest trading cliche in the book? Buy low, sell high.

Yesterday, we opened up in the value area of Wednesday before piercing both the value area high and the value area low within the first couple of hours of trading. The point of control kept price in line until the afternoon session where we saw a break of the Werdnesday low, before a recovery back towards the point of control again. 

Today, the value area high has already provided some resistance to the price action. 

One interesting observation is the gap (today and yesterday), they seem to be closely related. Another interesting point is the POC today is similar to the POC of the last couple of days. Today it is 11422.

The profile today is similar to a double distribution, suggesting that the price action can cut through the low volume area and find support at the lower high-volume-zone, towards the value area low. 

Trading Signals

Yesterday was a great day for the DaxTrader Scalper (broadcast daily to members). Here’s a link to the article which documents everything: https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/week-46-daxtrader-scalp-strategy-2018/

And the updated ‘set-and-forget’ trade signal results (not including scalps): https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/daxtrader-signals-results/

# Date Mkt Type Entry SL TP RvR Close Pips Return Balance
469 15-Nov ESTOXX S 3206 3217 3173 3 BE 0 0 32,498
470 15-Nov FTSE L 7076 7055 7139 3 SL -21 -0.50% 32,336
471 15-Nov DAX S 11417 11457 11296 3.03 BE 0 0 32,336
472 15-Nov FTSE S 7034 7055 6972 2.95 7005 29 0.69% 32,559
473 15-Nov DAX S 11417 11457 11296 3.03 11361 56 0.70% 32,787

Key Levels

  DAX FTSE DOW ESTOXX
POC: 11431 7049 25037 3205
Value Area High: 11448 7094 25165 3214
Value Area Low: 11351 7033 24888 3187
VWAP: 11387 7044 25081 3199
R2: 11648 7178 25702 3267
S2: 11151 6937 24581 3137
Pivot: 11399 7057 25142 3202
Camarilla Breakout (Bull) 11587 7162 25573 3250
Camarilla Breakout (Bear) 11314 7029 24956 3178

Useful Links & Resources

SIGNALS RESULTS
https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/daxtrader-signals-results/

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/economic-calendar/

DAX-RELATED NEWS
https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/dax-news-feed/

LIVE DAX CHART
https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/dax-chart-interactive/

POSITION SIZE CALCULATOR
https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/calculator.html

TELEGRAM CHANNEL: More Analysis
https://t.me/DaxTraderChannel

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