21-11-2018 Dax Technical Analysis

21-11-2018 Dax Technical Analysis

Good morning traders. Yesterday in the article we discussed an unusual volume profile. It was a double distribution day with a large low volume zone in the middle. Well, that area was not tested and instead we completed a fifth consecutive day of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart.

Yesterday also pierced below the major October low, however only by a point or two. The question is whether this will be the formation of a double bottom or does today provide continuation of this down trend. We will know more tomorrow.

21-11-2018 DAX 30 Hourly Chart

If we consider that the current price action including the gap this morning is a retracement, where will we go? The most obvious target would be a retracement back towards 11220. This is the underside of the previous lows. And this is also approximately half the way back up the previous swing length.

The previous minor swing was around 400 points, we have already retraced 140 and are currently trading around 11,140.

21-11-2018 Dax Profile

The retracement target that we discussed above would also be the exposed point of control from Friday. The price action missed this point of control yesterday, leaving it exposed/naked. Today we have opened up above the value area and have yet to break the value very high of 11,126. If we break a load this value area high, the point of control is that 11,072 at the bottom of the gap. This would be another option.

Yesterday we started below the value area as well and it failed to break inside around midday. So let’s see how the attempt goes this morning.

News Summary 

Oil plunges over supply cut fears. Interpol elects Kim Jong Yang as president. Salvini might be ready for budget changes. Trump wants oil prices and Fed rates lower. Apple shares drag Dow 600pts in the red. Trump says S. Arabia to remain partner despite Khashoggi murder. Deutsche Bank estimates $150B of suspicious Danske assets.

21-11-2018 Key Levels

Point of Control :  11103 6961 24505 3114
Value Area High :  11126 6973 24707 3129
Value Area Low :  11055 6936 24391 3109
VWAP :  11100 6955 24661 3122
R2 :  11283 7053 25283 3174
S2 :  10902 6840 23944 3069
Pivot :  11093 6947 24614 3121
Camarilla Breakout (Bull) 11172 6987 24797 3140
Camarilla Breakout (Bear) 10962 6870 24061 3082