26-09-2018 FDAX Technical Analysis

26-09-2018 FDAX

26-09-2018 FDAX Daily Chart

The overall major swings remain bearish below 12869.

The current bullish run is considered a Bullish Reaction wave, a correction, in the grand scheme of things.

There are some technical warning signs that the trend continuation is taking place, ie a continuation to the downside. For example we have already retraced over 1% from the 445 high and are currently testing this overhead channel resistance. This reversal signal suggests an end the current bullish run, and it should continue to move lower. However, the FDAX doesn’t really care too much about how it should or should not react. It does what it wants.

For me, breaking back above 445 and then above the 484 POC (see below) and then above this trend channel is the only way to clear any directional ambiguity. As a natural bull, I would not be surprised to see it do exactly that. But for now, I stick to a similar plan as yesterday.

26-09-2018 FDAX 60 Minute Chart

Here we can see the new downsloping swing marker. This is the signal for a swing change. Now we watch and see whether it plays out, or whether, like the previous two bearish pullbacks, we simply blast resistance and continue the overall Bullish Reaction wave.

26-09-2018 FDAX Key Levels

This is our current trading range 12299 – 12445 on futures. We are right in the middle of that range and any smart trader would normally tend to stay away from the middle. We are in a value area which offers its own opportunities for trading. I see two options for trading.

  1. Play the range game and buy low, sell high
  2. Wait for the break and trade the ‘kiss goodbye’.

 

26-09-2018 FDAX Key Levels

What a beautiful distribution profile yesterday.

I would say, and challenge me if you disagree, that this is about as perfect as it gets for a normally-distributed, symmetrical, bell-curve market profile. The VWAP, Pivot and POC are all central to the profile, the value area is central. Beautiful.

I should get out more….

26-09-2018 FDAX Key Levels

Bulls may fancy the 484 target (exposed POC from August) and perhaps not look too much further for now.

Bears may fancy the 348 and then a break of 300.

26-09-2018 FDAX Key Levels

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