On days like today, that's not an easy question to answer. But I would say that you really need a strategy which you understand and are comfortable with. A strategy that you have tested, and that provides you with consistent trading signals. That's what I try to do.
This is my strategy. Sell in the red zones, buy in the green zones.
A long entry entry is whenever price turns from neutral (red/white candles) to bullish (green candles), whilst inside a buy zone.
A short entry is whenever price turns from neutral to bearish (blue candles), whilst inside a sell zone.
I try to avoid trading when the candles are yellow, because this means that price action is extended above the deviation high (or below the deviation low). The dev hi and dev lo bands are two standard deviations away from VWAP, which is the volume weighted average price.
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Wall Street opened in the green ahead of the United States Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later today, with CME's Fed Watch Tool showing that traders expect interest rates to remain unchanged. US government debt yields accordingly increased in anticipation of the decision. In other news, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday that its next meeting will take place in Vienna from July 1 to July 2.
The European Central Bank (ECB) may introduce a new bond-buying program if further stimulus to the economy is needed, Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Wednesday. Speaking to CNBC in Sintra, de Guindos said: "We have a wide range of instruments available: We have forward guidance, we have TLTRO [targeted longer-term refinancing operations], we have the reinvestment of the maturities of our balance sheets — so there is an ample, you know, range of instruments that we could use, and QE [quantitative easing] is part of them." The ECB announced its decision to stop quantitative easing in December and ECB head Mario Draghi said further stimulus is not being considered by the central bank despite growth worries over global trade.
Currently we have a FTSE short from 7431 which may close early, depending on price action. We have already sent three DAX trades. One was a stop loss and the other two were tagged close to their breakeven points.
The General Court, a constituent court of the European Court of Justice, held on Wednesday that Adidas AG's three-stripe trademark was invalid as it did not have a distinctive character on the territory of the European Union and upheld an annulment decision by the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). The EUIPO initially registered the trademark in favor of the German sportswear company. However, after Belgian company Shoe Branding Europe BVBA filed an application for a declaration of invalidity in 2016, the EUIPO annulled the registration of Adidas' mark on the ground that it was devoid of any distinctive character. It said that the mark should not have been registered in the first place and that Adidas had not proved that it had acquired distinctive character through use throughout the EU. The latter appealed the EUIPO's decision. The General Court dismissed Adidas' appeal and upheld the EUIPO's annulment decision. It agreed with the latter that Adidas' mark had not acquired a distinctive character throughout the EU and that most of the evidence that the German company had produced in its favor was not relevant to the case at hand. It added that the evidence that was produced and was somewhat relevant pertained to only five member states and could not be applied to the territory of the entire EU. It therefore dismissed the appeal.
Oil continued to trade higher on after surging almost 4% during the previous session on fresh hopes the United States and China will reach a trade deal and end their ongoing dispute. US President Donald Trump announced the two countries will resume trade negotiations today and noted he will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka. Crude prices were also boosted by a reported drop in US oil inventories after private data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed American stockpiles fell by 812,000 barrels last week. The official figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due for release later today. Brent for deliveries in August added 0.48% to sell for $62.48 per barrel at 3:53 am ET and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.33% to go for $54.08 per barrel at 3:50 am ET.
Commerzbank analysts said that after hearing the latest remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, they expect the ECB to cut interest rates at its next meeting in July. "Yesterday's speech in Sintra may well be remembered as opening the door for the next round of large-scale stimulus, similar to his Jackson Hole speech in 2014. In essence, the ECB could no longer tolerate the adverse mix of collapsing inflation break-evens and rising real yields since the meeting two weeks ago," the analysts stated. Yesterday, Draghi noted the Eurozone inflation is too low and added the central bank is ready to cut rates if needed. At its June meeting, the ECB decided to hold interest rates and said it would keep them low at least until June 2020. The ECB is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 25.
European markets were higher in Wednesday's premarket trading after United States President Donald Trump confirmed he will meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit in Japan. Trump also said later that he wants to reach a fair trade deal with Beijing, insisting that he spoke to Xi and that he thinks "a deal is on the way." Meanwhile in the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson won the second round of the Conservative Party contest with 126 MP votes. Johnson stated, following the vote, that London will leave the European Union in October, stressing that he is prepared to leave without a deal if necessary.
Watch out for the UK PPI and CPI numbers, Canadian CPI numbers, the weekly crude stocks and the Fed funds target rate from the economic calendar today.
We found out today that producer prices in Germany increased by 1.9% in May compared to the same month a year ago, according to the country's national statistical office Destatis. In April, the producer price index was up 2.5%. The index saw an increase in prices in all main industry groups with energy contributing the most to the rise. In May, energy prices jumped 4.5% year on year with electricity soaring 9.2%. Excluding energy, the producer price index added 1.1% compared to the same month in 2018. Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose 1.8%, capital goods prices were up by 1.6%, durable consumer goods prices added 1.4%, while intermediate goods prices grew by 0.5%.
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