Dax Technical Analysis
Week 29 2019

Technical Analysis, Dax Outlook, Economic Calendar, Key Levels and Current Bias

Friday 19th July 2019

How To Trade The DAX

  • Trade in direction of overall bias
  • Get 4:1 reward on each entry
  • Stop loss under the most recent dot
  • Entry at the start of arrow's candle
Dax Trading Strategy

What Do I Need To Know Today?

European shares were in the green during premarket trading this morning as the earnings season continues. BlackRock Inc., Schlumberger Ltd. and the American Express Co. are set to release revenue reports later during today. BMW AG announced it appointed Oliver Zipse as the new chairman of the board of management.

There are signs of weakening in manufacturing in Germany, European's largest exporter, where the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden measured a fall of 0.4% for June compared to the previous month's 0.1% decline. Germany's year-on-year rate came in at 1.2% or 0.7 percentage points down from May. The inflation measure's reading is the lowest since December 2016 as policymakers from the European Central Bank are preparing to reintroduce stimulus and most probably cut borrowing costs, which increases greed on the Dax. The biggest downward contribution to the main index in the reporting month alone came from energy which lost 1.4%. There is plenty of focus on this data because it provides an insight into potential recession. Which increases fear on the Dax.

Interest rate expectations helped the Dax stock market to gain profits at the end of this week. A high-ranking Fed banker had spoken out in favor of controlling interest rate policy for preventive measures. This fueled speculation that the US Federal Reserve could cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points in its decision at the end of July.

Dax Technical Analysis Video

Sorry folks, I recorded a video earlier, or at least I thought I did, but it actually was a 'live stream' instead of a video recording, so unfortunately the details were not recorded. But thanks to those on Twitch that watched with me.

Dax Charts

Dax Major Swings Dax Intermediate Swings Dax Minor Swings Dax Key Levels

Thursday 18th July 2019

Why Is The Dax Selling Off?

The fear of consequence from the trade conflict between the US and China is adding to the German stock market worry. The Dax gapped lower. By far the worst performer of the individual Dax companies were the shares of SAP, which slumped by ten percent. Earnings were down a fifth in the past quarter due to the cost of downsizing and a takeover. The company also no longer expects to increase the return by one percentage point in the current year.

Oh yeah, and then there's Brexit. Most European stocks fell in premarket trade on Brexit fears after Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier warned the United Kingdom that it may have to "face the consequences" of a no-deal Brexit. The Dax dropped 0.94% at 8:56 am CET while the CAC 40 lost 0.54% at the same time and the FTSE 100 was down 0.36%. Which is not great for buying.

Dax Technical Analysis Video

No video today - back again tomorrow.

Dax Charts

Dax Major Swings Dax Intermediate Swings Dax Key Levels

Wednesday 17th July 2019

Dax Tags the UMLH and bounces from Triangle

This attempt to take out yesterday's high has failed right at the upper median line parallel from the fork Chris drew earlier and discussed in the Dax analysis video. The retracement from this high found support on the top side of the triangle pattern.

Dax compression break

Eurozone Inflation Up

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone stood at 1.3% in June, up from 1.2% recorded a month earlier, a report published the European Union's statistical office Eurostat today showed.

Seasonally adjusted production in both the entire European Union's and in the Eurozone's construction sector declined by 0.3% in May compared to the month before that, according to first estimates from Eurostat released today. Annually, construction production was up by 2% in the euro area and 2.5% in all 28 members of the EU.

Dax Technical Analysis Video

Dax Major Overview

12,287 currently looks like the new major low, but it's too early to confirm that technically yet. After Dax broke above the downsloping high to high trendline, it has pierced 12450, but struggles to find any significant momentum. The overall trend remains bullish above 12 163. In order to confirm 287 at a major blow, we need to take out 648.

Dax Major Swings

Dax Intermediate Overview

Mondays price action makes this chart difficult to read. But if you draw a line from Monday’s high and pull it through yesterday morning’ high (like in the chart below) you can see how price action has found support on the top side of that line, twice.We can take a regular pitchfork and watch to see whether that median line holds.

Dax Intermediate Swings

Dax Minor Overview

Here is another example of a downsloping high-to-high trendline which became support once price broke above it. The most recent circled low price was a nice area of confluence from the previous fork that we mentioned and the support of this downsloping line.

Dax Minor Swings


POC : 12421.0
VAH : 12432.0
VAL  : 12384.5
VWAP  : 12406.0
R2  : 12512.0
S2  : 12310.1
Pivot  : 12411.0
High : 12503.6
Low : 12336.6

Tuesday 16th July 2019

Dax Overview

The overall trend remains bullish on the German Dax. The market is bullish above 12,163. Since reaching its recent high of 12,648 we have seen a major reaction wave (pullback) of 360 points. 12,287 is the current low of this major reaction wave. The Dax has managed to find support here so far, and the early indications are that we are witnessing a change in behaviour. Change behaviour would typically be the start of a reversal. If we do see a reversal then I would like to expect a resumption of the overall bullish trend, but perhaps we will see a test of the 300 level first.

Dax Major Swings

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European Indices Finish Up Lower

Stocks on major stock markets in Europe closed in the red on Wednesday following the release of several important economic data reports. Eurostat's statistics's showed the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 1.3% in June, while the construction output fell by 0.3% in May. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported new car registrations in the European Union decreased by 7.8% in last month. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure stated the economic growth in the euro area was expected to weaken in the second and third quarter of the year.

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Monday 15th July 2019

Is Dax Ready To Break?

The previous attempt to get above 400 was rejected, so the question is whether the market will reject higher prices once more. But if we can break 429 then it's a clear sign of bullish intent.

Dax ready to break higher

Dax Holds Test of Topside Bounce

The first test holds, so the Dax has found initial support on the topside of that downsloper.

Dax Retraces Back to Topside

Chris mentioned in the video this morning that a retracement back to the break would be an interesting spot to watch. We are currently trading there right now. If the market can hold up here, there is an opportunity to buy the dip. If the makret breaks through this zone, then the resumption to the downside looks most likely.

Dax retraces back to the topside

Dax Technical Analysis Video

Dax ends down over 200 points

A disappointing week for bulls last week, as the Dax failed to keep pace with the US counter parts, and ended the week down over 200 points. The market has now comfortably closed the gap from the beginning of the month and is now testing the 300 zone for support. I tried to get long a few times last week, but failed, that's trading. I will probably try again so long as the market remains above the 12160 major low from late June.

Dax threatens to rally after breaking series of lower lows and lower highs Dax threatens to rally after breaking series of lower lows and lower highs