DAX Analysis
Week 33 2019

Technical Analysis, DAX Outlook, Economic Calendar, Key Levels and Current Bias

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Thursday 15th August

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Thursday 15th August

DAX Entering a Range?

Is it possible that the market is now moving into a range rather than downtrend? This is a question which I am asking at the moment. If we draw tramlines from the high and low, we have our levels. There is still a heavy chance of a continuation move to the downside based on the recession risk in Germany. Check out the video for more analysis.

DAX Potentially entering a range

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Wednesday 14th August

Some Superb Trades from the DAX Strategy

Look at how price action used VWAP as a perfect level of dynamic resistance. These techniques are so useful to understand and use. Job done. That's another +4% winner to get from the strategy to add to yesterday's winner. The issue today is that I did not have my algo on, so I didn't take today's trades. But yesterday I did!!

How to trade the DAX

DAX Short Setting Up

The first bullet was a loser on the strategy. The second bullet is setting up here. Same as before. Place the stop loss above the dots, get 4:1 on the trade and see what happens.

When to short the DAX

DAX Short Setting Up

The background is red, so the strategy is looking for shorts. Once the candles turn dark blue (bearish), it's time to short. Place the stop loss above the dots, get 4:1 on the trade and see what happens.

Should I Short The DAX?

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Tuesday 13th August

ZEW Is Awful!

Economic sentiment in the euro area deteriorated rapidly in the Eurozone in the past month as well as in its largest economy, according to an update to the expectations measure calculated by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). The headline forward-looking index for Germany plunged by a stunning 19.6 points to 44.1 below zero, the lowest level since December 2011 and 65.7 points below trend. The current conditions indicator weakened 12.4 to 13.5 points in negative territory for August, the deepest mark since May 2010. The euro area indexes nosedived 23.3 points to 43.6 in the red, the worst reading since December 2011, and 3.9 points to minus 14.5, respectively. The inflation indexes for the monetary union gained 0.6 points to 1.1 under zero. It fell 5.2 points from last month's zero balance for Germany. Economic expectations for the United States, Japan, Britain, France and Italy all worsened strongly. "The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the already weak economic growth. This will most likely put a further strain on the development of German exports and industrial production,"​ head of the institute Achim Wambach said.

MT4 Indicators

The RangeTrader, DipBuyer and RallyFader are ready for members. Let me know if you would like those to add to your MT4 collection.

Most Traders Remain Short

Continued tensions in Hong Kong spurred concern over the possibility of China's intervention and equities in major European exchanges started in negative territory on Tuesday, though losses were modest compared to the slump on Wall Street and in Asia-Pacific. Domestic companies are suffering amid an economic slowdown, mostly the recession in manufacturing. Furthermore, deflationary forces and record low interest rates and bond yields are distorting business models and destroying profitability. Gold jumped 0.74% to $1,522.59 per ounce. The session high, at $1,524.75, was the strongest since April 2013. Silver surged 1.97% to $17.4 for one troy ounce after climbing two cents more to a level last seen in January of last year. The euro retreated 0.2% to $1.11911 and traded flat at £0.92852. The pound was 0.18% lower at 1.20546.

German Inflation 1.1% for July

Germany's statisticians measured a major disparity between the movement in consumer prices according to domestic methodology and the data harmonized for European purposes. As package holidays are calculated differently, inflation strengthened to 1.7% last month from 1.6%, reaching the highest mark since April, while the other gauge slumped to 1.1% or 0.4 percentage points. It was last seen lower in November 2016. The findings were the same as in the preliminary report. The consumer price index rose by 0.5% in July alone against a 0.4% gain in harmonized terms. The energy item outperformed with 2.4% year over year though it declined from June's 2.5% and retreated 0.2% in the reporting month. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 0.6% for July only, growing by 0.1 points, and at a flat 1.6% on an annual basis. Separately, Destatis said wholesale prices dropped 0.3% last month and 0.1% from 12 months before. In June they fell 0.5% and increased by 0.3%, respectively.

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Monday 12th August

The DAX Remains Bearish

Price action seems to want to continue to move to the downside, so let's start taking a look at some of the potential targets.

Round Up of the News

The Pound Continues to Tank

Hastened preparations for a no-deal Brexit and a crumbling economy pressed sterling further on Friday. The exchange rate took it to 0.93172 per euro for the first time since October 15, 2009, while it also touched $1.20236. The level was last seen on January 17, 2017. The joint currency was 1.03% up at 9:45 pm CET at £0.93086 and the pound dropped 0.77% to $1.20385, threatening to weaken to the lowest point since 1985. The British currency slumped 1.05% to 1.1704 Swiss francs following a dip to 1.1694, the worst reading in 25 months. The pound was 1.19% in the hole at ¥127.17 after nosediving to ¥126.96, not visited since the so-called flash crash on September 11, 2017, or, effectively, since November 9, 2016.

Russia vs Google

Russia's media watchdog Roskomnadzor warned Google on Sunday that it needs to stop allowing ads for protests in Russia to be published on its websites, including Youtube. According to a statement published by Interfax, Google was told to "stop using Youtube to advertise illegal mass events." Furthermore, in case Google does not take any measures, Roskomnadzor said it will consider Google's actions as "interference in sovereign affairs of the state" and noted Moscow plans to "respond appropriately." The agency added that such actions also represent meddling in the democratic process in Russia. Earlier in the day, Chairman of Russia's Commission for the Protection of State Sovereignty and Prevention of Interference in Russia Andrei Klimov (pictured) warned that Moscow's "foreign opponents" used Youtube to "manipulate Russian citizens, who attended an authorized rally on Moscow's Sakharov Avenue." He commented that Russians started getting notifications from sources they never signed up to, during the rally. Klimov said the messages tried to convince the citizens to break Russia law.

North Korea

North Korean Foreign Ministry official, Kwon Jong-gun, told South Korea on Sunday that it needs to provide a "plausible cause" as to why it is holding military drills with the United States if it wants its contacts with Pyongyang to continue. According to KCNA, Kwon stated: "Given that the military exercise clearly puts us as an enemy in its concept, they should think that an inter-Korean contact itself will be difficult to be made unless they put an end to such a military exercise or before they make a plausible excuse or an explanation in a sincere manner for conducting the military exercise." Commenting on recent missile tests Pyongyang organized, Kwon added that even US President Donald Trump deems it alright for a sovereign nation to test conventional weapons.

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