A bullish start to Q3 for the DAX as we begin September and the German stock market again creeps over 13,000. The question now will be whether new capital continues to come back into the German equities, or whether we see more of a risk off tone from the markets. Perhaps some of the economic data can provide a hint. Preliminary euro area HICP figures are due today. After inflation surprised on the upside in July, markets are expecting a very low reading for core inflation probably 0.2%) due to seasonal factors that relate to postponed summer sales periods in France and Italy. That also means headline inflation will probably dip into negative territory for the first time since May 2016. However, as this is mostly due to base effects and government initiatives (German VAT cut), it probably will not create too many concerns at the ECB for now and inflation will likely rebound in September. Of course it may surprise us and provide an unexpected reading. We also have July unemployment figures out of the euro area, while in Germany we get a glimpse of the labour market report for August. PMI manufacturing data for August is also released for a number of European countries. So check out the economic calendar for today.
DAX 30 Review From Last Session
During the last session, we saw the DAX 30 find a session high of 13194 and a session low of 12947 giving us a range of 247 points compared to the average daily range of 215. At the close of play last session, the market closed at 13063 which was 877 points above the 200EMA and 384 points above the 50EMA. Yesterday was a bank holiday here in the UK, so my trading was mainly forex related although I did put some set and forget orders out there on both the DAX and FTSE. See below for more details.
Where Is The DAX Heading?
The DAX is currently Bearish.
The German stock market index is currently showing a progressive series of lower lows and lower highs. The trend defining level is currently 13155, so the market remains bearish below that level. Notice the strength of the current intraday rally? This could easily break the trend defining levels, but I am watching for a reaction to the centre line on the recent fork, drawn from the three most recent pivots. If the market smashes through that, then the trend-defining level will likely be under pressure today. But if it holds, then perhaps the trend could continue when it turns around.
DAX Key Levels
Moving on to the key levels to watch today, watch out for the previous session Point of Control (POC) at 13037 and the previous session Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 13051. The value area high (VAH) is currently 13085 and the value area low (VAL) is currently 13012.
DAX Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI | 58 |
| Stochastic | K: 78 and D: 73 |
| MACD OSMA | 12 |
| Point of Control (POC) | 13037 |
| Value Area High (VAH) | 13085 |
| Value Area Low (VAL) | 13012 |
| The DAX Pivot | 13068 |
| The DAX R2 | 13315 |
| The DAX S2 | 12821 |
| Daily 5 EMA | 13082 |
| Daily 8 EMA | 13050 |
| Daily 50 EMA | 12679 |
| Daily 200 EMA | 12186 |
Economic Calendar
To keep up with the economic calendar and the latest price action, click this link to open up the DAX chart. Here are the most important announcements for today
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