Bears have been alerted, because we are at 11630 again! This has been a popular selling spot, so let’s just see today whether we have another reaction, or not. Sellers will be interested in buying here, especially as buyers will be interested in taking profits from here. We have had four consecutive days of opposite engulfing (loosely used terminology) candles, which not really very interesting, more just an unusual technical observation on the daily chart, but that tight range is very compelling now.

On the market profile chart, we are currently in the middle of the value area, “no-mans-land” basically, right in the middle of the trading range. Price is trading near to the POC (point of control) and it’s notoriously tricky to get a good reward to risk setup from this area.

So I shall remain patient and wait for the setup to present itself. My bias is neutral, but I would like to buy from the bottom of the range.

We are still ranging between 11530 – 11630 and repeated breakout attempts have been rejected. The daily chart shows no real direction in recent days but is technically bullish above 11385. I have been watching the 11530 zone as a potential area to buy and the 11630 zone as an area to take profits, or perhaps selling back to 11530. The range is gaining strength and the longer it continues, the stronger it will remain.

We printed a pretty strong bullish candle after a significant looking bullish rejection candle the previous day, but despite that, the daily candle pretty much only extended from the bottom of the recent range 11530 to close to the top 11623. Today we have started the retracement of yesterday’s gains. If this intra-day retracement continues, but we remain bullish, we could find an opportunity to buy in the retracement zone, stops somewhere under the recent lows and targets being the top of the range or a break out.

The market sentiment is bearish and many traders on the forums and chat rooms a likely the opportunity to short, I however remain a bull, for my sins. 11530-11550 is still a fairly significant zone with plenty of demand and the 11630-11650 zone has plenty of supply, so while the market continues to range, I am looking at opportunities to buy low and sell high.

So right now we are playing Scenario 2, market correction, we’ve broken below 11495 and now we need to look for targets. I am reluctant to sell the market, (which may frustrate sellers) but happy to wait for a buy at a lower price. We have the weekly S2 at 11395, this could interesting as it was a support level late in December ’16 and the market also consolidated in this zone. I am watching the 11400-11425 zone closely and watching for 11385 to hold. If it doesn’t then the door can open to lower prices, but I also think that 11300 has been significant in the past so if we break below 11385 and retail traders pile in, to go short, expecting 11100 and lower, this 11280-11320 zone could slow price down.

There are three different scenarios that could play out over the next couple of weeks or so, right now we seem to be playing out scenario 3, but I will be looking out for signals suggesting we are about to change. Scenario 1 – Bullish continuation. Scenario 2 – Market correction. Scenario 3 – Rangebound market

Many analysts are expecting EURUSD to move still further towards 1.07 and if that were to happen, perhaps the Dax continues to move lower towards 11450, I will keep an eye on that as an opportunity. Patience may well be wearing thin the longer price continues to settle in this range after fake breaks, but as a bull it is difficult to find value up here, it’s still expensive.

Hello traders! I am having to type this morning on a different computer, which is much slower than my laptop so the simplest task such as loading up a chart is taking 5 minutes longer than normal, so today I will improvise and use my tradingview.com charts. For the...