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Dax Analysis 14th May 2025

Expect high volatility and sharp moves β€” likely mean reversion from extremes.

Good morning, traders, and welcome to Wednesday, May 14, 2025. As we navigate the midweek session, let’s delve into the latest developments impacting the DAX and outline potential trading strategies.

πŸ“° Market Recap: Tuesday, May 13, 2025

πŸ” Key Drivers

  • US Inflation Data: The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight uptick, raising concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This led to increased volatility in global markets, including the DAX.
  • German Industrial Production: Germany reported a 0.3% decline in industrial production for April, signaling potential headwinds for the manufacturing sector.
  • Corporate Earnings: Major DAX components, such as Siemens and Volkswagen, released quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, providing some support to the index.

πŸ“ˆ Technical Analysis: Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Chart 1: Volume, EMA Cross, RSI

  • Volume: Trading volume has been increasing, indicating heightened investor interest and potential for significant price movements.
  • EMA Cross: The 12-day EMA has crossed above the 26-day EMA, suggesting a bullish trend in the short term.
  • RSI: The Relative Strength Index is at 65, approaching overbought territory but still allowing room for upward movement.

Chart 2: Bollinger Bands, ATR

  • Bollinger Bands: The price is nearing the upper band, indicating potential resistance and a possible pullback.
  • ATR: The Average True Range has increased, reflecting higher volatility and potential for larger price swings.

Chart 3: MACD, ADX

  • MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
  • ADX: At 28, the Average Directional Index indicates a strong trend is in place.

Chart 4: Support and Resistance

  • Support: Key support levels are identified at 15,200 and 15,000.
  • Resistance: Resistance is observed at 15,500 and 15,700. A break above these levels could signal further gains.

Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Period Shift

  • The 40-day Simple Moving Average, adjusted by 15 periods, is trending upward, confirming the medium-term bullish outlook.

Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones

  • Zone 1: 15,300–15,350 has acted as a significant support area in recent sessions.
  • Zone 2: 15,600–15,650 is a critical resistance zone that, if breached, could lead to accelerated gains.

Chart 7: Daily Pivots

  • Pivot Point: 15,400
  • Support Levels: 15,300 (S1), 15,200 (S2)
  • Resistance Levels: 15,500 (R1), 15,600 (R2)
Bullish momentum from earlier is losing steam, corrective phase underway.
Bullish momentum from earlier is losing steam, corrective phase underway.
Range defined: 23,562 – 23,730. Clean breaks beyond either = trend trigger.
Range defined: 23,562 – 23,730. Clean breaks beyond either = trend trigger.
Market in transition β€” momentum must prove itself from here.
Market in transition β€” momentum must prove itself from here.
Use these zones to frame entries and exits.
Use these zones to frame entries and exits.
Price is now hovering around the pivot after bouncing off S1 earlier. Eyes on R1 retest.
Price is now hovering around the pivot after bouncing off S1 earlier. Eyes on R1 retest.
Short-term bullish structure but with immediate exhaustion signs.
Short-term bullish structure but with immediate exhaustion signs.
Expect high volatility and sharp moves β€” likely mean reversion from extremes.
Expect high volatility and sharp moves β€” likely mean reversion from extremes.

πŸ“Š Trading Signal: Long Position

  • Entry Point: 15,420
  • Stop Loss: 15,220 (Risk: 200 points)
  • Take Profit: 15,800 (Reward: 380 points)
  • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1.9

Note: This trade setup is based on current market conditions and technical indicators. Always conduct your own analysis before entering a trade.

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