Good morning, traders! It’s the mid-point of a busy week and just a day ahead of Eurozone CPI and the ECB minutes tomorrow. Markets are bracing for signals from the Fed’s speakers today and watching energy prices surge again. Let’s dive into the DAX and carve out today’s game plan.
🧾 Market Recap – May 14th Session
The DAX closed Wednesday’s session weak, falling steadily from the highs near 23,740 down to test lows of 23,358 in the early hours of today. A combination of weak earnings sentiment in the U.S. and renewed inflation concerns saw investors back off risk.
Key Drivers:
- 📉 U.S. CPI (Apr): Slight beat YoY at 3.5% vs 3.4% expected, driving bond yields higher and equity indices lower.
- 💶 Germany’s Final CPI: Came in as expected at 2.2% YoY. No surprises, but not enough to give bulls momentum.
- 🛢️ Brent Crude: Surged above $84, weighing on manufacturing sentiment.
Overnight, futures bounced on technical support around 23,350. This level aligns with multiple intraday reaction zones and marks a key pivot for today.
📊 Technical Outlook – May 15th, 2025
Chart 1: EMA Cross, Volume & RSI
- The RSI pushed above 68 with rising volume, indicating strength on the rebound.
- EMAs (short-term) have crossed positively after an extended bear phase, with price now challenging the EMA cluster around 23,473–23,491.
- This area could act as immediate resistance, with a break higher opening potential for an intraday push toward 23,545.
Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
- The Bollinger Bands expanded with price piercing the upper band at 23,524 — a sign of an impulsive move.
- ATR has picked up to 26.04, suggesting volatility is back. This can support momentum trades, especially in breakout scenarios.
Chart 3: MACD & ADX
- MACD crossed bullish early this morning with a widening histogram.
- ADX sits at 30.6 – trend strength confirmed. Combined, this is a strong long signal, especially if price remains above 23,473.
Chart 4: Support & Resistance
- Key support: 23,358 (tested overnight, held firmly).
- Key resistance: 23,545 and 23,732 (next major peak reaction zone).
- Watch for any failure to hold above 23,473, as it could reintroduce short-term bearish pressure.
Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Period Shift
- Price broke above the shifted SMA at 23,418 — a sign of short-term trend reversal.
- Sustained trading above this level confirms a bullish tilt for the day.
Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Lower zone: 23,358 — current day’s support anchor.
- Upper zone: 23,732 — significant resistance that aligns with the week’s high and macro sentiment ceiling.
Chart 7: Pivot Points
- Pivot: 23,573
- Resistance: R1 – 23,681 | R2 – 23,840 | R3 – 23,948
- Support: S1 – 23,414 | S2 – 23,306
- Price is currently just below the pivot, but momentum is favoring a retest of R1 (23,681) if bulls hold the zone above 23,500.
📆 Economic Calendar – May 15th, 2025
Key releases today:
- 🇺🇸 U.S. Jobless Claims – Markets want to see whether labor softening continues.
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone Industrial Production – Projected weak, could pressure DAX industrials.
- 🗣️ Multiple Fed speakers expected this afternoon – risk of hawkish tones after CPI.
Market will be sensitive to headline risk and bond yield moves.
📈 Trading Signal for Today – LONG Bias
Entry: 23,480
Stop Loss: 23,360 (120 pts risk)
Target: 23,840 (360 pts reward)
Risk-Reward: 3:1
Justification: Strong momentum confirmation via MACD/ADX, RSI over 60, price above key EMAs and reclaiming major S/R levels. Volatility conditions support breakout potential.
📌 Summary: What’s Driving DAX Today?
- Technical bounce off 23,358 sets bullish tone.
- Macro risk remains high with upcoming Fed speeches and inflation narrative in focus.
- Volatility and volume support short-term upside.
- Watch 23,545 — a breakout above here could invite day traders and algos to extend long exposure toward 23,681 and 23,732.
- If price rejects and loses 23,473, sellers may regain short-term control.
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