Welcome back from the weekend. We’re entering the final week of May with a mixed undertone—Friday closed with bullish hopes reignited after a wild reversal, and today we’re watching whether that energy carries forward or fizzles as we head toward month-end.
Let’s break down what’s driving the DAX and what the charts are telling us as we gear up for today’s session.
📉 Market Recap – Friday, May 23rd
The DAX ended the week on a positive note, following a dramatic intraday reversal on Thursday. Friday saw a quieter macro environment, but the technicals took the lead.
🔑 Key Recap Highlights:
- Price Action: After reclaiming 24,000, the DAX briefly tested the critical resistance at 24,045–24,150 but couldn’t fully punch through.
- Momentum: Indicators pointed bullish—MACD crossover, EMAs aligned, and RSI trending up.
- Range Defined: 23,984 served as a support pivot, while 24,149 remained the ceiling.
The stage was set for either a breakout or another rejection heading into the weekend.
📅 Economic Calendar – Monday, May 26th
Today’s session is light on scheduled data, but the calendar ramps up later this week with:
- 🇩🇪 German Preliminary CPI (Wednesday)
- 🇺🇸 U.S. Core PCE Inflation (Friday)
For today, technicals will guide price action. Also, watch for spillover effects from G7 discussions and any geopolitical headlines around Ukraine or Middle East energy routes.
📊 Technical Analysis – Monday, May 26th, 2025
📍 Chart 1: EMA Cross, Volume, RSI
- EMAs: Clean bullish alignment (5 > 9 > 20 > 50), with price trading above all key moving averages.
- Volume: Post-rebound volume has normalized, but Friday’s breakout volume was high, showing real conviction.
- RSI: At 59.68, still below overbought, but with upward slope—momentum is building.
👉 Signal: Bullish continuation bias. Watch for retest of 24,045+ with potential breakout on strong volume.
📍 Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
- Bands: After Friday’s volatility spike and outside band break, we’re now in a narrow consolidation zone—classic coiling behavior.
- ATR: Declined from Friday’s peak but still elevated at ~24.66, hinting more action is likely.
👉 Signal: Volatility compression. Expect a breakout move soon—direction to be confirmed by price over 24,050 or under 23,940.
📍 Chart 3: MACD & ADX
- MACD: Bullish crossover is intact with histogram easing—momentum may be pausing but not reversing.
- ADX: Dropping to 16.99 suggests we are in consolidation, not a strong trending phase yet.
👉 Signal: Neutral-to-bullish. MACD supports upward bias, but low ADX says don’t expect strong follow-through unless volume returns.
📍 Chart 4: Support & Resistance
- Support Levels: 23,934 and 23,941 holding well from prior structure.
- Resistance: 24,045–24,149 still acting as the immediate cap. A breakout here opens space toward 24,300.
👉 Signal: Play the range. Buy dips into support, but bulls need a clear 15-min close above 24,150 to open the upside.
📍 Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Period Shift
- Trend Signal: The DAX remains above the shifted 40 SMA and shows bullish color confirmation.
- Structure: Smooth reclaim post-dump confirms bulls are regaining control.
👉 Signal: Medium-term bullish structure intact. Hold above 23,983 keeps the upside bias alive.
📍 Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Upper Reaction Zone: 24,045 – 24,149 (major supply)
- Lower Reaction Zone: 23,656 – 23,708 (key demand from Thursday)
👉 Signal: We’re inside the upper PRZ now. Breakout above 24,149 could be explosive, targeting 24,300+.
📍 Chart 7: Daily Pivot Points
- Pivot: 23,675.38
- R1: 24,083.42 (currently in play)
- R2: 24,558.00
- S1: 23,200.80
👉 Signal: DAX is trading between Pivot and R1. Sustained trade above 24,083 opens the R2 test near 24,558. Below pivot flips bias to bearish.
🎯 Trading Signal – Bullish Breakout Setup
Setup: Buy on breakout and hold above 24,150
- Entry: 24,155
- Stop: 23,975 (180 pts risk)
- Target: 24,695 (540 pts gain)
- Reward/Risk: 3:1
📌 Rationale:
- Clean structure reclaim
- Bullish MACD and EMA alignment
- Price consolidating just below critical breakout level
- Low ADX = breakout likely to trigger acceleration
🧩 Summary – What’s Driving the DAX Today?
✅ Momentum structure remains bullish
✅ Price consolidating just below major breakout level
✅ Technicals favor upside continuation if 24,150 breaks
⚠️ Low ADX and tight ranges suggest we’re waiting on a catalyst
🔍 Key Levels to Watch Today
- Resistance: 24,149 → breakout opens path to 24,300 and 24,558
- Support: 23,934 → key demand area
- Pivot Bias: Bullish above 23,994 → Neutral to bearish below
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