Guten Morgen, traders — and welcome to the first Monday of June. We’re kicking off a fresh month with a punchy mix of macro catalysts and technical resets. The German DAX is coming off a volatile end to last week, and with inflation data and central bank policy front and center this week, positioning matters more than ever.
Let’s break it down.
📉 Market Recap – Friday’s Close & Drivers
🔻 DAX Recap: Broad-Based Selloff into the Close
The DAX closed lower on Friday after a shaky European session and late U.S. weakness. Index heavyweights like Siemens and SAP contributed to downside pressure as cyclical sectors were dragged by renewed concerns about eurozone inflation persistence.
- Close: 23,902
- Range: 24,165 (high) → 23,755 (low)
- Session Bias: Bearish breakdown late Friday, consolidation overnight
- Volume: Increased sharply during the selloff and into the European close
🌍 Macro & News Highlights:
- Eurozone CPI (Flash) YoY (May): 2.6% vs 2.5% expected → Hawkish signal for ECB
- ECB Commentary: Isabel Schnabel suggested that rate cuts will be “gradual and measured,” signaling no aggressive easing this summer
- US Markets: Ended weak despite solid PCE data — risk-off tone as yields ticked higher
🔜 Today’s Macro Events (June 2, 2025):
- 🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate (May) – 9:00 CET → Expected to remain at 5.9%
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final – 10:00 CET → Key read for growth sentiment
- 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (US) – 16:00 CET → Will drive U.S. risk tone into the close
📊 Technical Outlook – Monday, June 2
🧠 EMA, Volume & RSI (Chart 1)
- Price is firmly below all EMAs, including the 200 EMA at 23,969 → clear short-term bearish bias.
- Volume spike during the drop near 08:00 confirms bearish momentum.
- RSI bounced from oversold but remains capped under 52 → weak recovery effort, risk of further downside.
🌬️ Bollinger Bands & ATR (Chart 2)
- Price pierced lower Bollinger Band and is now re-entering from below → signs of a short-term volatility squeeze.
- ATR is elevated (~40) but not expanding → price volatility may compress if range tightens.
📉 MACD & ADX (Chart 3)
- MACD crossover just forming on early bounce but still negative → possible relief rally.
- ADX at 27.4 and falling → trend weakening after strong bearish phase, could lead to chop if buyers fail to follow through.
📌 Support & Resistance (Chart 4)
- Major support at 23,766 held in early session → confirmed bounce zone.
- First resistance overhead: 23,944, then 24,000–24,040 cluster → short squeeze targets.
- “Bear Wick” rejection at 23,983 highlights supply above current market.
🟠 40 SMA Trend Shift (Chart 5)
- Price has crossed the shifted 40 SMA from below, but signal is not confirmed – weak transition phase.
- Bias still points down unless reclaim above 23,950 holds intraday.
🎯 Peak Reaction Zones (Chart 6)
- Upper Reaction Zone: 24,185–24,390 → Strong rejection seen on Friday
- Lower Reaction Zone: 23,760 → Marked as defended; good for tight stops if long
- Current price trades between these zones with room for intraday scalps.
📐 Pivot Points (Chart 7)
- Daily Pivot: 24,011
- Current price trades below S1 (23,878) → intraday bearish control
- Key levels to watch:
- S2: 23,729
- R1: 24,181
- R2: 24,334
💡 Trading Signal – Short-Term Setup
🎯 Idea: Intraday short from 23,950 resistance zone
📉 Direction: Short
📍Entry: 23,950
⛔️ Stop Loss: 24,050 (100 pts)
✅ Target 1: 23,766
✅ Target 2: 23,700
⚖️ R:R: 2.5:1 → attractive if rejection occurs under Friday’s bear wick
Confirmation needed: RSI failure to break above 55 + weak bounce volume.
🧩 Summary: What’s Driving the DAX?
The DAX enters Monday with downward momentum from Friday’s inflation surprise and ECB caution. Technicals point to a fragile bounce that’s more corrective than structural. Volatility is high, but trend conviction is weak. Traders should look to short failed rallies into overhead resistance, especially if macro sentiment stays sour ahead of ISM Manufacturing later today.
→ Watch 23,950–24,000 zone for rejection
→ Bias: Sell-the-rally unless reclaimed pivot at 24,011 holds with volume
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