Good morning traders! As we enter the final trading session of the month, volatility remains the star of the show. After yesterday’s rollercoaster recovery, today opens with sharp upside momentum—but beneath the surface, signals remain mixed. Let’s break it all down.
🗞️ Market Recap – 29 May 2025
🔹 Key Drivers
- German CPI (YoY) printed at 2.8% vs. 2.5% expected, hotter than forecast. This initially pressured risk sentiment before markets staged a counter-move.
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment ticked down, confirming a cautious tone across Europe.
- US GDP (Q2, 2nd Estimate) came in at 1.4%, matching expectations—offering no major catalyst.
🔹 DAX Performance
- Low: 23,841
- High: 24,154
- After failing to break support at 24,000 early in the day, the DAX surged over 300 points in a fierce short squeeze—closing just beneath 24,150.
📅 Economic Calendar – 30 May 2025
- EU Unemployment Rate (11:00 CET): Forecast at 6.4%, unchanged
- German Import Prices (08:00 CET): Already released, slightly above forecast
- US Core PCE (14:30 CET): Key inflation gauge—expected at 2.7% YoY
👉 The US Core PCE is today’s biggest risk event. Any upside surprise could reinforce hawkish Fed rhetoric and pressure global equities, including the DAX.
📊 Technical Analysis – 30 May 2025
🔍 Chart 1: Volume, EMA Cross & RSI
- EMAs are strongly bullish post-crossover near 23,950.
- RSI has pushed above 70 and is starting to pull back—overbought territory.
- Volume surged on the breakout move above 24,000, confirming conviction.
➡️ Momentum favors bulls, but be cautious of an intraday RSI-driven pullback.
🔍 Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
- Price pierced the upper Bollinger Band, confirming extreme bullish pressure.
- ATR is rising, currently at ~22.7, which supports the case for range expansion.
➡️ High volatility breakout move—but watch for short-term mean reversion.
🔍 Chart 3: MACD & ADX
- MACD has crossed bullish, histogram building higher.
- ADX sits at 47.5, confirming a strong and active trend.
➡️ This confirms directional energy: uptrend is dominant and still gaining strength.
🔍 Chart 4: Support & Resistance Levels
- Key resistance near 24,154 (broken intraday).
- Previous resistance at 23,971 now acts as new support.
➡️ Watch 24,154 closely—rejection = potential fade, break = run to 24,250+.
🔍 Chart 5: 40 SMA with Shift
- Price has moved significantly above the 40 SMA + shift level (around 24,021).
- Momentum has turned clearly bullish from earlier consolidation.
➡️ This confirms a mid-term trend reversal back to the upside.
🔍 Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Lower zone: 23,841
- Upper zone: 24,391
➡️ We’re trading between reaction zones. Watch 24,391 as the next bull target.
🔍 Chart 7: Daily Pivot Points
- Pivot: 24,062
- R1: 24,283, R2: 24,611
- S1: 23,733, S2: 23,512
➡️ Above pivot = bullish bias. If we stay above 24,062, expect tests of R1 at 24,283.
📌 Trading Signal – 30 May 2025
🎯 LONG Setup (Bullish Bias)
- Entry: 24,100 (pullback zone near broken resistance and pivot)
- Stop: 23,960 (under structure and S1 zone)
- Target: 24,390 (upper reaction zone)
- Risk:Reward = 140:290 → 1:2.1
Use trailing stops once above 24,250 to protect profit on momentum continuation.
📎 Summary
The DAX has flipped back into bullish mode after defending critical support at 24,000 and rallying aggressively. Technicals are aligned: bullish EMA cross, MACD confirmation, strong ADX, and expanding Bollinger Bands all favor further upside. However, overbought RSI and potential macro headwinds (US PCE) suggest watching for pullbacks before continuation.
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