Guten Morgen, traders! We’re kicking off this post-holiday Tuesday with plenty of movement on the DAX and a very tradable setup forming. After yesterday’s rally attempts and sharp reversal, the market structure heading into today is fractured, but filled with opportunity. Buckle up — today is one for the tacticians.
📉 Market Recap – Monday, June 2, 2025
🔻 DAX Rejects 24,100 Zone, Ends Red
The DAX gave up early gains yesterday, topping out near 24,100 before sliding hard into the US open and closing the session just above 23,865. This aggressive rejection from the peak reaction zone (Chart 6) shows clear distribution from institutions.
📰 Macro & News Drivers
- Eurozone Inflation Misses Expectations
Final May CPI came in at 2.5% YoY vs. 2.6% expected, hinting at easing pressures. The ECB is still widely expected to cut rates Thursday, but this softer print reinforces the case. - German Manufacturing PMI Slides to 44.9
Reconfirming contraction, sentiment across German industrials remains weak. Particularly bad for cyclical DAX names like Siemens, BASF, and Daimler Truck. - US Yields Dip, But Fed Officials Push Back on Cuts
Fed rhetoric remains hawkish, weighing on global risk appetite late in the session.
🔍 Technical Outlook – Tuesday, June 3, 2025
Chart 1: EMA Cross • Volume • RSI
- Price is currently below all EMAs, with a steep slope forming on the 50 and 200 EMA (bearish alignment).
- RSI at 37 confirms bearish momentum with no immediate bullish divergence.
- Volume surged during yesterday’s selloff, confirming conviction. No climactic low yet — sellers still have control.
Chart 2: Bollinger Bands • ATR
- Price is riding the lower Bollinger Band, with expanded volatility suggesting continuation.
- ATR has spiked, indicating a potential breakout day. Downside range expansion likely if 23,818 breaks.
Chart 3: MACD • ADX
- MACD histogram and lines both deep in negative territory with no crossover yet — confirming bearish momentum.
- ADX at 41 confirms strength in the current trend. Bears are in charge.
Chart 4: Support & Resistance
- Key resistance sits at 24,058, aligning with yesterday’s bull trap wick.
- Support held at 23,818, a critical pivot. Below that, air opens toward 23,736.
Chart 5: 40 SMA (Shifted)
- The 40-SMA trend-shift indicator turned bearish at 23,970, adding confluence to the resistance zone.
- Price currently sits well below, reinforcing short-term downside bias.
Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Major supply zone confirmed at 24,087–24,058.
- Demand zone held at 23,818, but repeated tests weaken it. Any flush below opens path to 23,736.
Chart 7: Daily Pivots
- Today’s pivot is 23,967 — current price is well below.
- Next downside targets:
- S1: 23,848
- S2: 23,616
- Resistance at R1: 24,199 unlikely to be tested unless bulls reclaim pivot.
📌 Trade Setup & Signal
🎯 Directional Bias: Short
🛒 Sell Below: 23,850
🎯 Target: 23,736
❌ Stop Loss: 23,950
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 3.4 : 1
🔑 Rationale:
- Break of 23,850 confirms loss of support and continuation of downside trend.
- Momentum, volume, volatility, and trend signals are all aligned bearish.
- Tight stop above previous structure highs minimizes risk.
🧠 Summary & Strategy
The DAX is coming off a failed breakout, now rotating lower on solid volume and strong trend indicators. Today’s trade leans short — particularly on a break of 23,850. Be cautious around 23,818, but if it gives way, a fast move toward 23,736 is likely. Bulls need to recover 23,970 to turn the tide.
This is a momentum day — react quickly, and respect your levels.
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