Dax Analysis 4th June 2025

The DAX 40 closed Tuesday’s session with a sharp upside push, gaining +1.41% to settle near 24,294, following an intraday low near 23,780.

Drivers included:

• Easing Eurozone inflation data: Core CPI came in slightly softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the ECB could initiate a rate cut cycle as early as Q3.
• U.S. equity strength: Tech-led gains on Wall Street lifted risk sentiment globally, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM New Orders.
• German manufacturing PMI ticked higher, helping industrial names and pushing the DAX off Monday’s lows.

📆 Key Economic Data – June 4, 2025

• Eurozone Services PMI (Final) – Could reinforce disinflationary trends if weak.
• U.S. ADP Employment Change – Major pre-NFP labor readout, any upside surprise could weigh on equities via yields.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI – Heavily watched for growth signals; strong print would likely lift the USD and pressure risk assets.

🔎 Technical Analysis (All values extracted from the chart pack)

📊 Chart 1 – Volume, EMA Cross, RSI

• EMA Stack (5-min): Bullish alignment with fast EMA (green) at 24,296, above slower EMAs at 24,277 and 24,246.
• RSI: Peaked near 67, currently pulling back to 58, signaling some cooling after intraday overbought levels.
• Volume: Notably higher during the breakout phase toward 24,300, supporting bullish conviction.

📌 Summary: Momentum remains intact with bullish EMA structure, though RSI retreating suggests potential consolidation or minor pullback.

📈 Chart 2 – Bollinger Bands & ATR

• Price riding upper Bollinger Band before slightly retreating; recent candles show minor compression.
• ATR at 23.02, declining, indicating shrinking volatility after a high-momentum session.

📌 Summary: Breakout may be exhausted short term, with low ATR implying reduced follow-through risk until volatility expands again.

📉 Chart 3 – MACD & ADX

• MACD lines remain in bullish posture (MACD: 22.22, Signal: 18.98) but histogram turns red, suggesting waning momentum.
• ADX at 28.22, recently peaked, but turning down – trend strength may be weakening.

📌 Summary: Momentum is losing steam; consolidation likely unless new buying triggers another leg.

📐 Chart 4 – Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance near 24,327 (recent high).
• Key support levels:
  • Minor: 24,279
  • Stronger: 24,150 and 24,132

📌 Summary: Break of 24,279 may allow retest of 24,327; loss of 24,150 would shift short-term bias to neutral.

🔁 Chart 5 – 40 SMA with 15-Bar Shift

• Price remains well above the shifted 40 SMA (~24,250), with strong slope.
• Recent pullbacks failed to break below SMA, suggesting mid-term trend still strong.

📌 Summary: The uptrend structure remains intact, with no reversal confirmation on this timeframe.

🚩 Chart 6 – Peak Reaction Zones

• Upper reaction zone at 24,327 is being tested.
• Lower zones seen around 24,073 and 24,032 – likely to act as demand on any deeper pullback.

📌 Summary: Respect of 24,327 suggests supply; breach confirms breakout. Watch 24,073 zone as major defense line.

🎯 Chart 7 – Daily Pivot Levels

• Current price just above R1 at 24,249.79.
• R2 target at 24,361.83 aligns with upper wick of recent highs.
• Pivot at 24,034.33 supports intraday trend bias.

📌 Summary: Holding above R1 keeps bulls in control. R2 is today’s upside target; drop below R1 invalidates.

🧠 Synthesis & Trade Bias

• ✅ Bias: Moderate Bullish – Consolidation Phase
• 🔼 Price remains in a strong uptrend, but momentum indicators (MACD, RSI, ADX) are softening.
• 🎯 Key pivot levels and EMA alignment support upside, but volatility compression hints that the next leg may require new catalysts.
• ⚠️ A break below 24,150 would challenge this trend and expose lower reaction zones.

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