The DAX closed significantly higher, ending the session at 24,276.48, gaining +0.77%. The move was powered by domestic fiscal stimulus after the German government approved a €46 billion corporate tax relief package, aimed at boosting business confidence and investment. This drove strong gains across industrials and export-heavy DAX constituents.
Globally, sentiment remained constructive ahead of today’s ECB rate decision. European equities outperformed, with investors pricing in an expected rate cut. U.S. markets were mixed but stable, balancing softer Treasury yields with anticipation of labor market data. Asian equities closed broadly flat, reflecting caution ahead of upcoming central bank actions in both Europe and the U.S.
🗓️ Economic Calendar – June 5, 2025
Eurozone:
- ECB Interest Rate Decision: A 25bps rate cut is widely expected. This could support equity flows into DAX components, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials.
United States:
- Initial Jobless Claims: A higher-than-expected reading could support global equity sentiment, easing concerns about aggressive Fed policy.
- Non-Farm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs: These will influence U.S. inflation expectations and could spill into DAX positioning via bond yield correlations.
📈 Technical Analysis – DAX Outlook (Charts from June 5, 2025)
Chart 1: Volume, EMA Cross Patterns, RSI
The DAX experienced a high-volume surge during the last session. All short-term EMAs (green/red/blue) are in bullish alignment above the 200 EMA (purple), confirming trend strength. The RSI peaked above 70, indicating a temporary overbought condition. It is now pulling back toward the 55–60 region, suggesting momentum remains positive but stretched.
Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
Price tagged the upper Bollinger Band and is now pulling back inside it — a common mean-reversion response. The Bollinger width has expanded, and ATR reads 18.99, the highest in the session, reflecting a transition into a high-volatility regime. This implies elevated breakout potential in upcoming candles, especially if today’s ECB decision surprises.
Chart 3: MACD & ADX
MACD shows a bullish crossover earlier in the session, but the histogram is now contracting. The MACD line has started to turn down while still above zero, suggesting bullish momentum may be fading short-term. ADX stands at 31, confirming a strong trend environment — ideal for continuation setups, but only if MACD stabilizes.
Chart 4: Support & Resistance
Key levels:
- Resistance: 24,397
- Support: 24,344 (near-term), 24,235 (breakout origin)
Price broke through prior resistance at 24,289, which may now serve as support on any intraday pullback. A clean break above 24,397 could trigger further upside acceleration.
Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Bar Shift
The DAX is trading well above the shifted 40-SMA (now at ~24,314), confirming a firm medium-term uptrend. The color shift from orange to teal around 09:00 marks the bullish crossover, which has held up with strong price separation.
Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
Two peak zones are defined:
- Upper Reaction Zone: 24,397 – a key rejection level tested this morning
- Lower Reaction Zone: 24,235 – recent support and base of breakout
Current price is consolidating just below the upper reaction zone. A breakout through 24,397 would invalidate this as resistance, opening room toward the R2 pivot.
Chart 7: Daily Pivot Points
- Pivot Point: 24,245.77
- R1: 24,365.77
- R2: 24,467.97
- S1: 24,143.27
The DAX is holding above the daily pivot and testing R1. Failure to break above 24,366 cleanly could invite a retest of the pivot. Sustained trade above R1 favors a move to R2 at 24,467.
🧠 Synthesis
The DAX remains in a bullish structure both technically and fundamentally. All seven charts align to confirm upward momentum: EMAs, MACD, ADX, and 40-SMA all reinforce strength. However, signals from the RSI and MACD histogram indicate potential short-term exhaustion.
Today’s ECB decision is the pivotal risk event. A dovish outcome (expected cut) could support further upside — especially on a break through the 24,397 resistance zone and R1. Conversely, failure to hold above 24,344 could shift focus back to 24,235 and the daily pivot at 24,245.
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