The DAX ended Thursday’s session in consolidation mode, closing marginally higher after a choppy day defined by profit-taking and central bank event risk. After a strong rally into the European Central Bank’s rate decision, the index saw mixed reactions post-announcement, closing near 24,268, virtually flat.
The ECB delivered the anticipated 25bps rate cut, taking the deposit rate to 2.00%, in its first easing move since 2019. While the decision met expectations, the accompanying forward guidance disappointed dovish traders hoping for additional clarity on the path ahead. As a result, European equities struggled to maintain upside traction despite early gains.
U.S. markets showed mild gains after better-than-expected labor productivity data. Asian markets were stable overnight, contributing to a neutral tone in early European futures.
🗓️ Economic Calendar – June 6, 2025
Eurozone:
- No major data scheduled today, placing technicals and U.S. flows in control of European indices.
United States:
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30 GMT): Key macro driver today. A strong report could weigh on risk sentiment by lowering expectations of Fed easing. A miss may reignite bullish flows into European risk assets.
📈 Technical Analysis – DAX Outlook (Charts from June 6, 2025)
Chart 1: Volume, EMA Cross Patterns, RSI
DAX price is now trading below all four EMAs, with the short-term green and red EMAs (likely 9 and 21) now sloping down. This suggests the bullish impulse has broken down. A brief RSI recovery from the 30 zone has brought the oscillator to 53.26, but momentum remains fragile and below yesterday’s highs. Volume has picked up into the latest selloff, confirming bearish engagement.
Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
Bollinger Bands widened yesterday on the ECB-driven volatility spike, and the DAX spiked outside the upper band intraday before collapsing sharply. Price is now hugging the lower half of the range, signaling caution. ATR has compressed slightly to 18.64, down from the Thursday peak, which points to declining volatility post-ECB, but risk of expansion persists into NFP.
Chart 3: MACD & ADX
MACD has returned near the zero line after turning negative during the sharp reversal. The histogram has begun rising again, and MACD line is now slightly above the signal line — showing early-stage recovery but not confirmed momentum. ADX at 13.17 reflects a weak trend state. Momentum is indecisive; market awaits catalyst.
Chart 4: Support & Resistance
- Resistance: 24,322.85
- Support Levels: 24,245.56 and 24,209.34
Price is rebounding after a clean reaction at the 24,209.34 level. The prior rejection at 24,322.85 remains structurally important. Until a break of either, this is a low-conviction range.
Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Bar Shift
DAX traded below the shifted 40-SMA from early in yesterday’s U.S. session through this morning, showing loss of trend strength. However, the price is now attempting a move back above the 40-SMA (~24,271), with early signs of momentum recovery shown by color transition in the candles and improving histogram.
Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Upper Reaction Zone: 24,488.5
- Lower Reaction Zone: 24,209.3
Price is currently positioned between the lower zone and mid-range resistance. The failure to hold above 24,333 yesterday shows supply remains active at higher levels. Until price regains that zone, upside remains vulnerable to rotation.
Chart 7: Daily Pivot Points
- Pivot (P): 24,301.14
- R1: 24,423.77
- S1: 24,113.77
The DAX is currently trading below the daily pivot, implying a bearish intraday bias. A break above the pivot could invite a move to R1, but failure to reclaim 24,300 keeps pressure toward S1.
🧠 Synthesis
After yesterday’s ECB event, the DAX has transitioned from a high-momentum breakout to a neutral-to-bearish consolidation. The rejection at 24,488 and failure to hold above key EMAs and pivot points show trend exhaustion. Today’s U.S. jobs data is likely to dictate directional conviction for the next leg.
Bias: Neutral-to-bearish intraday unless 24,301 is reclaimed and 24,323 broken.
Watch zones:
- Upside trigger: 24,323 → opens toward 24,423
- Downside trigger: 24,209 → opens toward 24,113
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