📊 Market Recap – June 7, 2025
The DAX closed lower Friday at 24,202.50, down approximately -0.27%, after a sharp mid-morning sell-off triggered by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The data reinforced the case for sustained U.S. interest rates, which weighed on equities globally.
After an early attempt to reclaim upside ground, the index reversed sharply through key support zones in the European session and failed to recover into the close. U.S. indices followed a similar path, ending mixed, while Asian markets opened cautiously this morning.
🗓️ Economic Calendar – June 10, 2025
Eurozone:
- No major data today — focus remains on technicals and U.S. macro spillovers.
United States (14:00 GMT):
- Wholesale Inventories (Final) – unlikely to move markets, but continued focus remains on Fed commentary and rate expectations post-payrolls.
📈 Technical Analysis – DAX Outlook (Charts from June 9, 2025)
Chart 1: Volume, EMA Cross Patterns, RSI
The DAX remains in a firm bearish configuration. All EMAs (short-term through long-term) are now aligned downward with price below every average. The RSI sits at 42.26, following a sharp drop from Friday’s breakdown, and is struggling to regain its midline — confirming continued lack of bullish momentum. Volume spiked aggressively on the morning breakdown, marking heavy distribution.
Chart 2: Bollinger Bands & ATR
Friday’s range expansion punched the DAX through the lower Bollinger Band, triggering a volatility burst. The current price remains near the lower band and below the mid-line, while ATR has expanded to 25.17 — the highest level in multiple sessions. This places the index in a high-volatility, breakdown-prone regime. Any rebound attempt must reclaim the band midline near 24,224 to neutralize the downside skew.
Chart 3: MACD & ADX
The MACD histogram dipped significantly and has only barely turned positive; the MACD and signal lines remain below zero, showing weak momentum recovery. ADX has now risen to 23.43, up from Friday, indicating a growing trend presence — but directionally biased to the downside. This setup favors continuation lower if price fails to find demand above key support.
Chart 4: Support & Resistance
- Resistance: 24,308.56 (last upside rejection)
- Support Zones: 24,242.96 and 24,164.28
- Breakdown Low: 24,154.0
Price failed to hold 24,308.56 after testing it in the early morning, and is now consolidating just above the key 24,164.28 level. A break below 24,154 would confirm a fresh leg lower. Until then, the range remains compressed between 24,308 and 24,154.
Chart 5: 40 SMA with 15-Bar Shift
The 40-SMA shifted trendline has flipped fully bearish. Price is holding well below the SMA (at ~24,240), and recent candles remain orange — confirming short-term trend pressure. No signs of a reversal here unless a sharp reclaim of the 24,240 zone materializes.
Chart 6: Peak Reaction Zones
- Upper Reaction Zone: 24,353.3
- Midline Resistance: 24,321.2
- Support: 24,154.0
The DAX is now trading beneath the mid-range control zone and testing below the lower reaction boundary. As long as price remains capped below 24,321.2, downside structure remains valid.
Chart 7: Daily Pivot Points
- Pivot (P): 24,288.81
- S1: 24,224.26
- S2: 24,144.80
- R1: 24,368.27
The DAX is currently trading below both the pivot and S1, with recent lows pushing toward S2. This confirms a bearish intraday pivot structure. For bulls to neutralize the bias, price must close back above the pivot — ideally with a volume thrust.
🧠 Synthesis
All seven charts confirm a shift from consolidation to bearish continuation. Momentum has faded, trend structure is now aligned lower, and support zones are weakening. The DAX remains pressured below daily pivots, trend EMAs, and reaction levels.
With no major economic drivers from Europe today, technicals and global risk sentiment will dominate flows. Expect volatility clusters around 24,154 (breakdown risk) and 24,308 (upside cap).
Bias: Bearish
Short-term levels to watch:
- Breakdown trigger: 24,154
- Upside invalidation: 24,308
- Pivot reclaim needed: 24,288.81
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