Dax Forecast 18-09-2018

18-09-2018 Dax

Morning traders. We’re range-bound between our two trend-defining levels (12033 – 12135) and conditions are tricky for momentum moves on the DAX 30. However, we’ve had a positive start to trading after the opening bell. 

During this morning’s webinar, I discussed my plan to look for shorts to ride back down to 12000, but this move have been a lot more positive that I expected so my plan has been thwarted.

Once again, concerns over further US tariffs on imports from China dominate headlines.

US President Donald Trump took the next stage of escalation in the trade dispute with China: With his biggest blow so far. Customs duties on $ 50 billion worth of goods will be followed on 24 September by tariffs on goods worth another $ 200 billion. The next phase of this depends on the reaction of the Chinese. If China were to respond with countermeasures against US agriculture or other industries, the US government would usher in yet another phase – the third – Trump said. 

For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies. We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices.

Given that markets have been bracing for this tariff announcement, I expect a muted reaction rather than dramatic sell-off in Asian equities and currencies today. It’s also possible that the US tariffs would not work as expected, because China has ample fiscal and monetary policy tools to cope with the impact. 

Dax Trading Yesterday

Four trades. I took the first three trades from my volume scanner and then a fourth around lunchtime. I gained +25 points overall, which considering the potential for a choppy losing day, could have been worse.

18-09-2018 Dax Charts

We remain in the lower half of this ACR line set, after bouncing close to the reaction line. 

We remain trapped in a range.

My best options are to either wait for a break and kiss goodbye of the range bounds, or continue to play the range game until it breaks. 

A compressed range and another normal looking distribution suggests that we will be 

 

18-09-2018 Dax Key Levels