DAX Journal 04/07/2017

17:45

Just checked on the trade and the last part has been stopped out at breakeven.

15:58

I don’t want to get into the habit of making predictions, but, I would like to think we find resistance here at 12470-12475, then eventually retrace back to VWAP (currently around 12445) in the evening session. It seems today is going to be a range day with a simple normal distribution. I could be wrong.

15:52

I am slightly concerned about the falling Delta, suggesting that we are about to drop. I think it’s time to take a second chunk off because I am going to be leaving the office shortly. Take advantage of the quiet afternoon/evening. The volume is currently just not there to support a huge rally this afternoon. A few more points, possibly. So I am happy to just leave the remaining part of the trade open, I would even consider leaving on overnight.

14:47

We are testing this triangle right now, so the trade is looking to continue. We don’t really mind either way any more. It’s a free trade. We’ve bagged some profit and we have de-risked it. It’s a free roll. Perhaps there’s a chance for another one? Probably not today, with the lack of volume.

14:05

I have moved the stop loss to break even, because we are coiling up and could break in any direction. So I have moved into trade protection mode and moved the stop.

13:53

Ok, so this trade has been open for some time, and I noticed that we just about tagged the 12458 (futures) level which was a target I was discussing this morning. So I have taken a piece of the trade off the table. I will close 1/3 for around 22 points profit

13:10

The triangle pattern is still evident on the lower timeframes, so whilst the price is gradually creeping higher, it is still confined to that developing range.

12:13

It’s yo-yo-ing around a little bit today. Possibly because of low volume. We are carving out a normal looking distribution at the moment (for today at least), perhaps suggesting that this is a ranging day, with this area being a battleground. The current trade is around 16 points up, we have been in much better position, I have still not taken any partials.

12:05

Are we starting to coil up on the lower time frames? Specifically the 5-minute chart. If we are, then I may have to adjust the ‘partial taking’ strategy.

11:35

It’s often very easy to get a panic when the price turns against you after a strong rally. But this is just highlighting one of the psychological failings of many traders. We have a tendency to cut our trades short and not let them have the opportunity to breathe. However, at the same time, when they turn around and take out your stop loss, it’s quite frustrating, especially if we didn’t take any partials after having the chance to do so.

I am of the belief, in this particular trade, that the reward to risk was there. I will leave it to run. If it gets stopped, then so be it. It is very possible that the legs are just not there today, to make this move

11:04

I can split this current trade up into 3, so I may take partials as the trade progresses. That 458 line on futures looks good for a first partial.

10:29

I am watching that Doji there to see if it works out to be a potential balance point. Offering an opportunity to get long up to the 100%. It’s a bit fishy though.

10:07 – New Trade

DAYTRADE BUY #GER30 @ 12434.65 | SL:12408.00 | TP:12535.00 | 2017.07.04 10:05 (BST) | ID 13676830

Strategy: Bounce from yesterday’s lower distribution high volume node on second test. Delta increasing. Rising three methods on the 2 hour chart.

Risk: Naked VPOC from yesterday, price may turn and break to hit that. It could open a second opportunity to trade the same bounce.

Details: Risking 26 points, targeting 100, nearly 4:1. Account risk 1%

9:31

Webinar completed, 12535 is the zone I am marking out as a target, potentially 12600 as well. The entry would need to be around 430 in order to get the right reward to risk. So if that area is not filled, then a signal will not likely be sent. However, it doesn’t stop us finding other entries.

6:53

Gold is starting to bounce from the lows, so does this contribute to a DAX opening sell-off this morning. If so, is the 12405 higher volume node a potential target? Especially if 12425 breaks.

6:13

The opening range this morning could be interesting, especially with the double distribution day from yesterday. The delta is beginning to decrease, the low volume pocket below is an obvious target to spill into.

VAH – 12450
POC – 12392
VAL – 12377

There is a naked VPOC from Thursday that is still a possible target 12600 if we get a good break to the upside. I found it interesting that if we pull a line through the Friday Balance point, from the Thursday evening low, we closed on that line last night. So the other side of the story could be a bounce from there.