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DAX Commentary Summary 03/11/2014
Looking at the bigger picture, profit-taking seems to be providing a break for the rally, in fact we may possibly even have time for a consolidation. There was a survey completed in Germany recently and one third of the respondents assume the current movement in Dax maintains upward momentum. Six percent have declared the bottoming phase ended and now expect immediately a new high. Unfortunately the pessimism is quite high: Overall, more than half of the voting participant does not expect any further price increases in the short term.
I personally believe investors are just waiting for a buying opportunity. Falling prices would consequently be used very quickly for institutional purchases.
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A negative day, across pretty much all the 30 components today, in fact 90% of the top 10 companies, by market capitalisation, that make up the DAX are currently reporting a negative day. (Correct at the time of writing this article) Nothing unusual based on the large Friday session. Prices currently trade under the 24 hour vwap and actually trading at the 200-day EMA. The 61.8 fib level is not far from acting as an area of confluence with the 200-day average, giving the bears hope of further decline tomorrow and the rest of the week. But looking at the daily chart for the last two weeks, there is a strong pattern emerging; strong up day, smaller pullback the second day, strong upside the third day, small pullback the fourth day etc. Today doesn’t look much different on the chart. Webarely breached Friday’s high today and instead retraced around 50% of Friday’s gains. Eyes now turn to Thursday’s ECB decision, specifically in whether or not they spring their own surprise, much like Japan did on Friday.
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