Dax Technical Analysis 06/03/2015

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Good Morning Traders!

How was your trading yesterday? Central banks have been busy taken up newspaper space this week with their rate statements and economic data releases, but today we have the big one and 230k is the target. The ADP release delivered below expectations so whilst the the correlation is not always there, I wouldn’t be surprised if NFP under delivered. A figure below 200k could trigger a selloff.

Euro equity markets ended higher in yesterday’s session in light of the ECB’s tone sounding a little more dovish than expected. Perhaps the ECB decided to downplay the last few weeks of positive Eurozone reports. US NFP data will be the major driver of markets today. A very strong NFP might boost European stock markets but it could also limit US markets as the USD gains and US bond yields trade higher.

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Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELS		Difference
Daily R2	11608	41
Daily R1	11555	69
Value High	11521	182
Naked VPOC	11507	201
24hr VWAP	11481	179
Daily Pivot	11480	140
Value Low	11448	225
34 Hour EMA	11436	81
Daily S1	11427	168
Daily S2	11352	239
200 Day EMA	9932	17

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Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Similar position to a couple of days ago before we had the mini pullback and Fridays can provide reversals.

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (5-minute)

If we break below the current range of 11500-11530 then 11480 could slow us down (pivot). If we do break the daily pivot then bulls may step in again between S1 and S2. A larger move will see us retest the 11300 support ready for perhaps a further correction Monday. But this will depend largely on the fallout from the new releases today.

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (4-hour)

Top of the channel, still making higher highs and higher lows.

 

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis (30-minute)

We are now back inside the channel which was broke the other day. It does look like the 11075 prediction might not happen now and 11200 was the ideal entry.

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Dax Volume Profile Analysis (5-minute)

I have added a rolling 5 day vwap (lighter coloured line) to help with the bigger picture. Being above that vwap helps to confirm the trend and how overbought we are. Lots of algorithms tend to trade towards vwap.

11507 produced a large high volume node yesterday and coupled with a 11500 psychological level, price action could actually be sideways consolidation using this level to build from. Sideways action like this in a a bullish market can have a similar effect to a pullback.

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Interesting Charts

These charts come from the review I am conducting on the indicator you can see pictured in the charts. These particular charts use the simple template, with just two indicators visible. You can view the article here: https://thedaxtrader.co.uk/forex-indicator-predictor-review/

Dax is at the bottom of the m30 channel, I am watching a break under 11500, then a rejection to make this a buy trade. A break lower than 11480 could also be interesting to watch for the downside.

USDCAD is developing an interesting setup on the m30 chart.

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