Dax Technical Analysis 08/03/2016

Good Morning Traders!

This is looking more and more like a sell at the moment isn’t it? We have been trapped inside a tightening range for a few days and we have started breaking out to the downside. Bears are rubbing their hands together expecting a collapse back to 9250 and perhaps lower. So all eyes on to Thursday’s ECB meeting.

When you draw a fibonacci retracement from the Dec 29 high to the Feb 10 low and look at the reaction at the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, the last four or five days of candles have been consolidating in that zone and today we have seen the break out lower.

The 4-hour chart shows we are approaching the top of the Bollinger band and threatening to move lower too. The Stochastics are providing confirmation with a move down from the overbought zone. As I write this, price is currently 9646 and sat on the median line of the Bollinger band.

The 30-minute chart shows a break below the weekly pivot line, the S1 is down at around 9450. I am looking for a pullback towards 9700 and will likely enter a short from there. I am also interested in watching a break below 9600.

There is still plenty of event risk to watch out for, but my strategy is going to be bearish until Thursday. I will be waiting for the ECB outcome and then watch for continuation trades.