Dax Technical Analysis 14/11/2016

Good morning traders!

Supermoon today, that will give something interesting to watch in the sky later on, so I am hoping to catch a decent picture or two from the beach.

On a different note, here comes a rant, I love a good rant. Am I right that only 50% of eligible voters in the US actually voted in the election?! 50%! If that’s true it’s a disgrace and an embarrassment and I would be ashamed to be part of that non-voting 50%. What’s the point in not voting, what difference is ‘doing nothing’ going to make? Rather than going into a full on essay, I will let Jonathan Pie do it for me: Worth a watch, even though many will probably be offended: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

There are some interesting things to watch on the market too, the Dax is at the top of its recent range and is looking to decide its next move. Based on the decline in gold, and the rise of the dollar and other equity markets, I suspect it could be favouring the bullish side.

When we look back to 2015 we will see that on the bigger picture, 10800-11000 was a pretty significant level for price, particularly around the summer months and leading up to Christmas. Price was using that zone as support to prop price up, but now we are testing it from the underside and that support is resisting price.

The daily chart also shows an importance level as we are once again testing the parallel that was touched on Thursday. A break above this may not necessarily mean that we are heading up towards 12000 or ‘All Time High’ levels again, but it will be a strong bullish signal, especially in hindsight after you consider Wednesday’s candle.

The range that I talked about earlier is much clearer to see on the H4 chart but demand is beginning to dominate and whilst we may be approaching overbought levels at the top of the range, the strength of this move is gaining a lot of momentum.

On the H1 chart the 10800 is key, but right above that, we have 10867, so it could get choppy as price starts wading through some sticky resistance levels. To break through 10800, we need to see a strong candle on the H1 or m30.

On the m30 chart last week, I was expecting a move back to 10400 somewhere before moving higher, but it never happened. So I didn’t get many opportunities to trade the Dax, I was stunned. Trump, if you can give him the credit, actually had a positive impact on the market, which went completely against the polls and analysts beliefs and got many traders in trouble. Love him or loathe him, it doesn’t really matter, the decision has been made, it’s time to accept it and move on.

On the 5 minute chart, we are right on the daily R2 (pivot point indicator) so a really strong move higher, breaking through the R2 would be required. It’s definitely possible that it happens today, but under normal circumstances it would be unlikely. But Trump is going to be president, it’s not really ‘normal’ circumstances is it.