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Good morning traders!
We flirted with the 10,000 yesterday and I suspect that quite a few traders may have take the trade to go long on a break of that level, only to be trapped a little as it pulled back to 9887 this morning. But it could still work out to be a good trade.
02 Daily Dax Chart
The short term trend has moved to bullish given the break of 9920 and I think that so long as we stay above 9775 we can move higher. Longer term however we are still bearish and approaching the underside of the 200 day EMA. There is previous support-cum-resistance there too looking back to December 2016 and January 2016. So I am not looking too far ahead in terms of bullish targets.
As we are below the 200 day moving average, I would be setting up my DaxTrader RSI EA to a bearish bias and select RSI settings that favour more selling signals.
Hint: Such a 1 hour chart with 60 20 RSI 8 periods targeting 350 points for 50 point stop loss. 7:1 risk reward?!
05 m30 Dax Chart
On the 30 minute chart we can see the range we have broken out
from and we can also see that price is currently sat on top of the 34 hour EMA, which is also the top of that range. So bulls are looking at this as a potential buy zone and more conservative bulls are waiting for a slightly cheaper price, nearer to 9800. There is also another option which is to wait for a break above the high from yesterday to trigger a long.
Bears may be considering a short from current levels targeting a move down towards 9800, but the risk reward is not great and I imagine plenty of buyers will step in along the way to make it a choppy trade.
06 m5 Dax Chart
Dax Support & Resistance
| KEY LEVELS | |
| Daily R2 | 10140 |
| Daily R1 | 10068 |
| Daily Pivot | 9969 |
| Daily S1 | 9897 |
| Daily S2 | 9798 |
| 200 Day EMA | 10242 |
DaxTrader RSI EA Backtesting Results
Doing a quick scan of the RSI settings below, here are some of the results I found over the last 12 months of data, remaining within a 30% drawdown tolerance:
- Opening account size: £10,000
- Chart period: 5 minutes
- Overbought level: 75
- Oversold level: 30
- RSI Periods: variable (best results 28)
- Take profit: variable up to 350 points (best results 200 points)
- Stop loss: variable up to 50 points (best results 48 points)
- Lot size: between £4-£5 per point
| Symbol | GER30 (DAX) | ||||
| Period | 5 Minutes (M5) 2015.05.26 17:05 – 2016.03.14 20:59 (2015.03.15 – 2016.03.15) | ||||
| Model | Open prices only (only for Expert Advisors that explicitly control bar opening) | ||||
| Initial deposit | 10000.00 | ||||
| Spread | Current (1 point) | ||||
| Pass | Profit | Total trades | Profit factor | Expected Payoff | Drawdown $ | Drawdown % |
| 490 | 14385.98 | 157 | 1.51 | 91.63 | 3776.47 | 19.37 |
| 425 | 13806.50 | 157 | 1.48 | 87.94 | 3852.98 | 19.84 |
| 474 | 13279.29 | 157 | 1.51 | 84.58 | 3485.89 | 18.56 |
| 468 | 12890.09 | 160 | 1.48 | 80.56 | 4860.53 | 19.96 |
| 399 | 12743.03 | 157 | 1.48 | 81.17 | 3556.54 | 19.00 |
| 498 | 12736.56 | 158 | 1.47 | 80.61 | 4947.25 | 20.35 |
| 488 | 12263.66 | 160 | 1.46 | 76.65 | 4774.20 | 20.21 |
| 449 | 12208.18 | 156 | 1.41 | 78.26 | 3852.84 | 20.31 |
| 435 | 12172.57 | 157 | 1.51 | 77.53 | 3195.45 | 17.68 |
| 404 | 11897.51 | 160 | 1.48 | 74.36 | 4486.75 | 19.30 |
| 402 | 11756.35 | 158 | 1.47 | 74.41 | 4566.65 | 19.68 |
| 390 | 11679.60 | 157 | 1.48 | 74.39 | 3259.64 | 18.10 |
| 460 | 11611.61 | 156 | 1.39 | 74.43 | 5145.60 | 28.81 |
| 225 | 11322.01 | 160 | 1.46 | 70.76 | 4407.31 | 19.52 |
| 405 | 11268.75 | 156 | 1.41 | 72.24 | 3556.42 | 19.45 |
| 507 | 11179.40 | 157 | 1.39 | 71.21 | 4962.54 | 21.74 |
| 455 | 11065.60 | 157 | 1.51 | 70.48 | 2905.01 | 16.73 |
| 422 | 11057.64 | 157 | 1.40 | 70.43 | 4947.46 | 24.97 |
| 458 | 11005.90 | 156 | 1.36 | 70.55 | 5293.21 | 29.80 |
To get your version of the DaxTrader RSI EA, other set up and fund an FXCM account using this link (European traders only)
Get a real account here
Or purchase it here, directly from the website. I will also provide you with a list of settings to try out for each time frame on the Dax to get you started.
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