Good morning traders!
So Greece are scrambling to ready their list of reforms in response to the deal (made in principal) offered on Friday to extend their bailout for 4 more months. Early indications suggest that targeting tax evasion and shrinking the civil service will be high on their agenda. Once compiled, the next step is for the other member states to sign off on the reforms list, which could prove to be a stumbling block today.
However, if Greece play ball and manage to persuade Germany to accept the list, then at least their bills will be paid in March and we can temporarily park the fear of a Grexit until June, when the same thing will happen again. Keep your eyes peeled to the news releases.
Bullish Approach. We are heavily Bullish so buy dips. For new longer term positions wait for a couple of days of pullback before getting in. If you trade intra-day, use a trend channel or buy close to support, currently around 10950.
Bearish Approach. Market may wake with a hangover today so if we get a pullback there is a chance to capitalize. I would look to target 11050 which would be the re-test of the breakout from Friday. Watch for resistance on Greece reforms.
Looking at the pre-market data, we are likely to open lower today, perhaps heading closer towards 11110.
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Support & Resistance
| KEY LEVELS | Difference | |
| Daily R2 | 11292 | 270 |
| Daily R1 | 11208 | 273 |
| Daily Pivot | 11077 | 190 |
| Value High | 11053 | 95 |
| 24hr VWAP | 11018 | 97 |
| 34 Hour EMA | 11009 | 103 |
| Daily S1 | 10993 | 193 |
| Naked VPOC | 10976 | 41 |
| Value Low | 10959 | 52 |
| Daily S2 | 10862 | 110 |
| 200 Day EMA | 9795 | 15 |
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Dax Daily Chart Analysis
Once again we are top of the rising trend channel, this has been respected a couple of times already and now we are approaching the top once more. We have broken out of the large recent trading range to the upside but yet are still under 70 on the RSI.
Dax Daily Chart Analysis
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
There was a decent technical breakout on Friday, seen on the second chart below. We are overbought on the shorter timeframes and we could see a test of the breakout level, offering a good chance to buy from there (Greece-dependent).
Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis
Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis
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Dax Volume Profile Analysis
The profile is a bit bottom heavy and as we are so far ahead of vwap and outside of the deviation boundaries, we are likely going to pullback to get within normal levels again. If we take out Friday’s value area high (YVAH), then watch for a vwap bounce higher. If that doesn’t hold we could get back to test the breakout levels and the 11k psychological level. I’m looking to buy from there.
Dax Volume Profile Chart Analysis
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