Well the pullback from the all time high didn’t last long did it? In fact we saw a day yesterday very similar to Monday, in terms of candle length, so because of this I am still sat on the sidelines with no swing trade open. But I can’t be disappointed because it’s end of the month today and what a crazy month it has been.

The Greece time bomb still has some fuse left to burn.

I think I expected more of an initial reaction from the Greece problem this week to be honest, but I am realising that maybe this is going to take a few weeks, maybe even a few months before the severity of the problem manifests into an ugly contagion spreading and igniting a largely bearish market. I know there are many investors who would claim that they have been predicting that something like this would happen for years, perhaps we are now closer than ever, I see the argument. There is even talk of Russia bailing them out, interesting development.

But while QE is flowing and money is printing, the world of equity futures and stocks are a happy place to be if you’re a bull and ignorance really is bliss, right? I have been bullish for a while on the Dax, but got a little apprehensive regarding the potential fallout from the Greece issue and I haven’t spotted a decent place to get back in for a swing trade, so I am still looking for spots to trade short-term for now.

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Dax Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELSDifference
Daily R210982150
Daily R110894185
Value High1074637
Daily Pivot10741111
34 Hour EMA1071853
Naked VPOC1070145
24hr VWAP1070036
Daily S110653146
Value Low1063631
Daily S21050072
200 Day EMA960313

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Daily Dax Analysis

Heading back up towards the top of the channel, had a strong bull day yesterday and are overbought again. We could not quite take out Monday’s record high and ran out of steam around 30 points short. Still inside a developing range, but we are not compressing, so it’s simply sideways movement until either a new high is made, or we take out 10500.

Dax Daily Chart

Dax Daily Chart

Intra-day Dax Analysis

I posted up a pattern yesterday showing price respecting short-term fib levels, making 4 clean waves bouncing inside a rising trend channel and I predicted a further leg up. We got the further move up and price continued to respect the channel (with normal variance) but we have now far exceeded my prediction, I got out a bit early there. I would like to see if price bounces from the daily pivot today 10741. Holding this may provide a good long entry.

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Dax Intra-day Chart (30 minute)

Volume profile

10746 has been respected as a level of short-term support/resistance since around 4pm GMT yesterday on the 5 minute chart and it seems this has become the value area high for yesterday. I sense this could be strong support tomorrow if we get an early pullback, I may consider a long entry from somewhere there. Perhaps a BuyLimit around 10750-10765 zone with stop loss in between the YVAH and Naked VPOC. There was not a lot of volume traded in the evening so the top end of the volume profile looks sparse and patchy for obvious reasons, but the rest of the profile is regular and there are no real pockets to consider as opportunities.

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)

Dax Volume Profile Chart (5 minute)

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