Today’s report was released a little later than planned, so I will keep things short.

Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELS Difference
Daily R2 10937 -93
Daily R1 10794 -139
Value High 10716 -54
Daily Pivot 10693 -66
24hr VWAP 10669 -47
34 Hour EMA 10668 2
Naked VPOC 10641 -89
Value Low 10592 -9
Daily S1 10550 -112
Daily S2 10449 -39
200 Day EMA 9580 9

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Dax Analysis

Dax Longer-Term view

Looking at the big picture, there are currently two conflicting fundamental issues at work; ECB QE and Greece which will create volatility as news is released over the coming weeks. All I can offer is my opinion, but I think that due to the fact that Greece is technically bankrupt and looking to write off their debt and ignore the German austerity rules. I can not see how Greece can repay their debt and I can not see how the Germans will accept them to write off their debt, so a default down the line, some point this year, seems highly likely, which will inevitably mean a run on banks, perhaps a few other defaults and lots of stock dumping. Not the end of the world, but a big financial mess. It’s a very well documented subject.

Bulls should probably take what they can at the moment, but be weary of ongoing developments in Greece and tensions between them and their lenders, because a sharp sell off is only around the corner. Right now is possibly a bit of “calm before the storm” activity and the QE is keeping bulls happy, 11000 is in sight, but be prepared to be flexible.

Dax Daily Chart

Pullback started yesterday after being heavily overbought in the short term, pulling a fib from the recent low gives us a fib range between 99xx-102xx which could provide a decent entry to go long. So I would not be surprised if the pullback continues and we go and test the 10100 level in the next week or two.

Dax is getting a lot of media attention too at the moment, due to it’s recent bullish activity and we all know that when the media and general public catch wind of a move, then the move is possibly coming to an end soon and it will be a good time to consider a change.

Dax Daily Chart

Dax Daily Chart


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Dax Intra-day

We are tangled up with the 34-hour EMA after being comfortably above it for some time, and perhaps there is an opportunity to bounce off this higher. If we continue the pullback today then the S2 will be in play, but expect the sell off to slow down near S1. Overall we are bullish above 10100 and there is plenty of support on the way down there, the first key level to take out is the 10585-10600 zone which we have tested once already today and seem to be testing again right now.

Dax Intra-day Chart

Dax Intra-day Chart

Dax Volume Profile

Gap open this morning, closed almost immediately and downtrend threatens to continue. Since saving this chart, we have already had a vwap slap and price bounced off this level to come and retest 10600. We are sat on a sell signal but need a decent break under 10585 and perhaps a test of the level from the underside to convince me to turn short-term bearish and hold a position for the rest of the week.

Dax Volume Profile Chart

Dax Volume Profile Chart


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