Good morning folks and welcome to the 28-11-2019 DAX Analysis article. You will find the charts and DAX analysis webinar recording below. It’s Thanksgiving today, so I will take the opportunity to thank you all for supporting the site and the channels. Thank you to the members and subscribers and friends I have made from the premium service. Thank you also to the donations from the website, I appreciate it guys, thank you again.
DAX Analysis
28-11-2019 60-minute DAX Analysis
After yesterday’s price action we see a double top at 13,307. This area is just above the median line on the pitch fork. This morning we can see price action breaking below the upsloping low to low trendline. Looking left, you can see the monthly composite volume profile. The monthly composite value area is between 13,141 and 13,281. The market currently trades inside that monthly composite value area. 13,219 is the monthly composite point of control, so this is probably the reason why the price has found value in its current zone.
28-11-2019 10-minute DAX Analysis
The gap from this morning is between 13,255 and 13,286. The 50% point would be 13,270 so watch out for that. The most obvious target to the downside was the quartile line which I discussed in the webinar. Notice how this level was tagged. The most obvious outside target is a break above 13,307.
28-11-2019 DAX Analysis Webinar
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28-11-2019 DAX Key Levels
We saw two large swings yesterday. The first swing came around the European open. Notice how price action found support at the value area high, then again at the value area low. I saw some heavy responsive buying at the value area low. And notice how price used the point of control as an ignition point. Again, I discussed this in the webinar. The high from yesterday tagged the high from the previous day, but failed to break above, creating a double top.
This morning the gap took out almost the entire value area from yesterday. We trade below the value very low today, and have already tagged yesterday‘s low. That is a bearish sign however I expect to see a response to buying in a similar manner to yesterday.
| Method | Price |
| VWAP | 13270 |
| Point of Control | 13272 |
| Value Area High | 13291 |
| Value Area Low | 13257 |
| Pivot | 13270 |
| R2 | 13368 |
| S2 | 13171 |
Market News
There are no releases in the US due to Thanksgiving.
Keep an eye on any comments regarding the US-China trade negotiations,
whether a US delegation will go to Beijing and possible retaliation measures from China following Trump’s signing of the Hong Kong bill. China has invited the top negotiators but some sources have indicated that the US team will only go if it sees a high chance of a deal. The Hong Kong bill, which was passed by Congress last week, requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status as well as sanctions against officials undermining its autonomy. China’s has reiterated its threat of retaliation which worsens the negotiation climate for a trade deal.
The Fed’s Beige book indicated that economic activity expanded ‘modestly’ in November, which is a stronger wording than the ‘slight-to-modest’ phrase from October.
YouGov’s MRP model predicts the Conservatives will win 359 seats (versus 211 for Labour, 13 for LibDems and 43 for SNP), which would mean a big majority (326 needed for a majority and in practice the number is actually smaller). That model was only one to predict a hung parliament in 2017.
If the model turns out to be right, PM Boris Johnson will be able to pass his Brexit deal before Christmas without too many problems, which is why the GBP has rallied. PM Boris Johnson pledged again earlier this week that he will not extend the transition period. This means there is a clear risk of a no-deal Brexit by this date if the UK and EU27 are unable to strike a permanent agreement.
