Good morning traders!
Dax Outlook
We remain bearish below 12335 on the wider timeframe. Yesterday we had a mini ‘relief rally’ which was driven mainly by easing tensions in NK. We are still seeing a Gold rally and a move towards risk off sentiment which supports the bearish case for equities. The relief rally is approaching resistance, so we could be ready to attempt short setups soon.
Regarding event risk this week, tomorrow, the FOMC will issue minutes from its July meeting, this may hold some clues on when the next hike will be. There is also the Euro GDP data. These releases can occasionally spill over into the indices.
Bearish Strategy
Sell near resistance and take profits near support. Assuming that the 12335 trend-defining level holds, the bearish strategies are more likely to play out. We like a rejection from High Volume Node on the composite profile. HVN2. If this move takes off, then retracements back to VWAP can offer additional entries.
Resistance
Composite HVN2 bottom – 12225
Composite HVN2 top – 12265
Previous high (Aug 1) – 12295
Trend defining level – 12335
Support
Composite HVN1 top – 12180
Composite POC – 12150
Yesterday POC – 12139
Compositive HVN1 bottom – 12109
Bottom of yesterday’s gap – 12000
Bullish Strategy
Buy near support and take profits near resistance. Although the overall trend (bearish) is still intact, we have seen a bullish channel (relief rally) form from the lows on the 10/11th. The current line in the sand for bulls is around 12150. If that level goes, then the channel is broken and we’ve made a lower low. But if it holds and buyers can defend it, then there’s an opportunity for a long with good reward to risk (despite the probability of success is very low).
Support
Composite HVN1 top – 12180
Composite POC – 12150
Yesterday POC – 12139
Compositive HVN1 bottom – 12109
Bottom of yesterday’s gap – 12000
Resistance
Composite HVN2 bottom – 12225
Composite HVN2 top – 12265
Previous high (Aug 1) – 12295
Trend defining level – 12335
Dax Live Room
We had a signal this morning in the Live Room, with some profits already taken:
DAYTRADE SELL #GER30 @ 12228.35 | SL:12245.00 | TP:12165.00 | 2017.08.15 08:08 (BST) | ID 14060025
Trade context (Posted in the Journal)
My outlook today was to attempt to short at or near resistance, assuming that the wider bearish trend was going to prevail. I may need to have a few attempts at it today. This is the first. We are currently directly underneath a large value area from the previous weeks trading data, we have just seen a spike at 8 am followed by the signs of a ‘blow off reversal’.
If the pattern plays out, we can move our stop loss to break even and see how many points we can take off. The concern is whether the stop loss is too tight.
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